An Early Look: Penn State

Let's excuse our Penn State friends for a moment. I've just given them beaucoup spank bank material.

2009 is going to be a very, very important year for the Penn State program. It may end up being the most important of the decade, outside of 2005's Redemption Tour. The Age of JoePa is coming to an end, and soon. The program has largely put the struggles of the early 2000s behind them, and on the strength of a Big  Ten championship and a shocking win in Columbus last year, Penn State is considered by many to be the Big Ten's other program-of-the-now,  as Michigan has placed itself firmly in the midst of a massive rebuilding project.  What is it exactly that Penn State has to do in 2009 to have a successful season?

Well, first off: the program has its doubters. Despite the lopsided Rose Bowl loss to USC, Penn State is a program that has largely been innocent of the non-conference embarrassments characteristic of other Big Ten programs lately; the Nittany Lions had won two bowl games prior to the Rose Bowl meltdown, one against an okay Texas A+M squad in Texas and another against Tennessee, a game prior to which Tennessee boasted a top-20 ranking and the Lions had been unranked. The program, however, still bears the mark of what its fans call The Dark Years, and up until 2008, the struggles against Ohio State and Michigan had held the program back from rejoining the ranks of the truly elite. 2008 was in many ways a breakthrough year; Penn State beat both Ohio State and (an admittedly down) Michigan, and if the Big Ten's championship-deciding rules weren't so archaic, the Lions would have won the conference outright. Up until the final weeks of the season, Penn State was seen as a national title contender, whose legitimacy was questioned - in my mind, unfairly at times - due to Ohio State's falls-from-grace in the prior two championship games. While the losses to USC and Iowa stung for Nittany fans, 2008 provided renewed confidence in Paterno and the newly-explosive offense.

But they still have one more hump to get over. They have to be able to repeat that success to at least some degree, and channel it into another solid (i.e. no more than two loss) conference season. If they don't, the "once-a-recruiting-cycle" nature of Penn State's national relevance will continue to stain the program. The Big Ten will have to suffer through another year of being considered Ohio State, and then everybody else. No pressure or anything, guys.

But if they're relatively successful, Big Ten detractors will have a difficult time deriding the conference as a "one-team league", and it'll only get more difficult if the Rich Rodriguez experiment shows signs of life at Michigan. I frequently find myself reminding my fellow Ohio State fans that if the conference is to truly get better, the Buckeyes will have to take their share lumps in the process.* Personally, as a fan who wants to see his team win every game, I don't think it's worth it, but perhaps that's just me. However, if you're one of the people who really, genuinely cares about "conference strength", you want Penn State to show some sort of staying power. They don't necessarily have to win the conference, but they have to be competitive in every single game, win about ten of them, and ideally, they need to win their bowl game as well.

Penn State players you should care about:

On a schematic level, Jared Odrick had about as much to do with Penn State's win as Aaron Maybin swallowing Bryant Browning whole. Odrick literally tore up the offensive interior for four quarters, and was a big reason why Beanie Wells was held to 55 yards rushing on 22 carries. Of course, Navarro Bowman, he of the 106 freaking tackles in his redshirt freshman year, had a bit to do with that as well. Both will terrorize the offensive line, and if neither can be blocked, Ohio State's offense will be done. Evan Royster didn't quite tear up the Buckeye defense last year, but he provided some consistency on a night where Daryll Clark could provide none, toting the rock 19 times for 77 yards.

Fun with statistics:

Penn State's rushing defense last year was a killer, killer outfit, and given that they return Odrick, Bowman, and Sean Lee (from injury), it might be even better this year.  Five teams - Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana and Illinois - went over 100 yards rushing on the Nittany Lion defense, and all of them except Wisconsin had one run that went for 30 yards or more on its own. Oh, and Iowa. But Iowa had Shonn Greene. Basically, if that one run that killed them against Indiana, Illinois and Michigan didn't happen, it would have been in the conversation as one of the most dominant rushing defenses in the Big Ten this decade. USC, a little busy torching the Lions' secondary through the air, managed only 61 yards on 35 carries in the Rose Bowl.

Penn State had nine guys with over 100 yards receiving at the end of the season to Ohio State's five. Fortunately for us, the three most productive of those guys - Deon Butler, Jordan Norwood and Derrick Williams - are gonesie.

How big was Aaron Maybin to Penn State last year? Well, he account for more than 1/3rd of their 33 sacks. Odrick was their next-leading sack artist, but  Josh Gaines and Maurice Evans, a due that accounted for seven combined sacks last year, are lost to graduation and the draft. All told, Penn State lost more than half of their sacks off of last year's unit.

As a result, this is where I start salivating: Lydell Sargeant, Tony Davis, and Mark Rubin are no more; they have ceased to be, and the only returning guy of note in the secondary is AJ Wallace. And uh, yeah about AJ Wallace....

My prediction: Alright, you're going to have to bear with me on this. I think Terrelle Pryor is going to do fairly well against the Nittany Lions, and here's why: last year, he had his best passing day of the season, yards-wise, against the Lions. This year, he'll do much of the same. Expect him to get a good amount of time in the pocket and rack up some impressive stats, but the Penn State front seven is going to clog the rushing lanes at critical junctures late in the game. In the end, Penn State will walk away having given Ohio State a tough 17-13 loss, as the Buckeyes end up settling for one too many field goals after multiple promising drives. I should note that I personally do not think this Penn State squad goes undefeated in the Big Ten, losing probably at Illinois. Nevertheless, Penn State's front seven, featuring what might be the best linebacking corps in America , will be simply too good for a Buckeye offense that'll probably still be relying quite heavily on its ground game to overcome.

A Nittany Lion's Thoughts: Kevin from BSD was kind enough to oblige us with his opinions on the game, as well as whether or not this really is a rivalry.

1. Do you consider Penn State - Ohio State a rivalry? If so, why?

Yes, and I'll try to keep this concise.

I wrote a bit about this in the magazine, but basically I see the evolution of this thing following the path that the some southern schools have taken. For so long you had OSU and UM as consistent Big Ten winners, with others unable to maintain any lasting stature as a consistent threat.

The way this works is if Penn State is able to put the Dark Years behind them and become that third party threat. Purists on your end will probably claim there can only be one Game, but guess what: Michigan has a pretty solid rivalry with Notre Dame, and that's been able to co-exist for an awful long time with their conference finale.

So how is a school like Florida is able to have multiple rivals and no one gets into pissing contests about which one is best? FSU is an important game for them, but so in Miami, and they have the Cocktail Party with Georgia...it's all gravy and it only makes there season better.

And it's really only discussion about Michigan that makes this a question in the first place. PSU and OSU share a border and recruiting ground and your Best Player Ever is from our state. Only our two schools have won the conference championship in the last four years and we are picked 1-2 again in 2009. Gameday has been to this game four years in a row, they've only been to Ohio State-Michigan twice in that time.

I'm not trying to discount your game with UM, it's great yada yada, but I do find it funny how important it is for Big Ten lovers (from all schools) to put games into very distinct and well defined boxes rather than just looking at the reality of the situation: which is that when teams repeatedly compete for high stakes natural "rivalness" occurs.

I blame it all on the damn trophies.

2. Name a player opposing fans should be aware of; preferably one that don't already know about.

Well you might have heard we lost the three long time, well regarded receivers who dominate Penn State's career receiving records. Even though just about everyone bashed them in their 2008 previews as undersized and over-hyped (or alternatively: underwhelming and unimpressive), we are apparently all going to die and looking at the total abomination of our passing game.

But the team will try to throw anyway, and although I could pick a couple of guys who may or may not break out, I'll name-drop Derek Moye. He'll be the deep threat and at 6-5 has the ability to (in time) be a more imposing Butler-type because of his athletic ability. He can by most accounts fly and should help at the very least open the field up a bit.

3. Taking off the blue and white-colored rec specs, what do you think Penn State's regular-season record will be?

I hate making predictions and so prefer a kind of caveated cop out. We looked at some of the early lines and Penn State isn't a pre-season dog in any game they play. This makes me want to say 12-0 is saying something like below 11-1 is a kind of disappointment.

But I'm not really that optimistic. Ohio State as you know will be very good this year, Iowa is early enough to give a developing team some problems, and Illinois scares the hell out of me because if Williams shows up that offense will be impossible to stop. Basically: 9-3 is a very real possibility.

4. Make an off-the-cuff prediction for the Ohio State game.

Off-the-cuff? Sure: Penn State 16 Ohio State 10 on a cold as hell day where Royster and Green outplay Herron and Saine.

I can personally verify from extensive playing and replaying of this game on NCAA 09 that Derek Moye is indeed a terror to cover. Well, pixellated Derek Moye anyway. Leave your thoughts on the game below.