Ah, the memories...

I did an interview not too long ago in which I said that I, unlike most college football fans my age, have teams that I root for outside of Ohio State. I just never grew out of that habit. Texas, despite the heartache they've given me, is one, and Iowa is the other. I like Iowa. Really, I do. Not in just a "they gon' be good this year hurrr" way, but in an I-genuinely-like-the-football-program way. Like us, they hail from a state many consider "flyover country", and since as a result they aren't one of the top destinations in college football for big-name recruits, they're a player-development-oriented team, as Hawkeye State from BHGP will later explain. Their entire program rests on the shoulders of their coaching staff; most of the guys they trot out each Saturday do not have the same level of innate ability as some of the guys on Penn State's, Ohio State's and Michigan's respective benches, but they still win, and heck, they've shown up in OOC games quite a bit more often that the conference's big dogs, and that's a plus in my book. Despite not having the best hand on the table, talent-wise, they win enough to keep the denizens happy. Even though I hate the team that inspired them, I love the uniforms too. 

For a while there, I thought Kirk Ferentz had lost control of his program. The unbelievable string of arrests, the disturbing sex scandal, and a 19-18 overall record from 2005 to 2007 led me to believe the wheels had come off the wagon, or that at the very least, were threatening to. 2008 did not prove me entirely wrong; Iowa still lost 4 games - including mistifying losses to Pitt, Northwestern and Illinois - but managed to make a bowl game and beat an SEC team. Sure, that SEC team was about as threatening as a bag of dickless weasels, given that it was South Carolina, but they won their bowl game, which more than anyone else in the conference could say. 2009 is a pivotal year for the Hawkeyes, and it's pivotal for many of the same reasons the year will be pivotal for Penn State. The Hawkeyes also have to prove that an earlier malaise is officially behind them, and in doing so prove that they belong in the conference's top tier. They may even be competing with the Lions for the spot vacated - for now - by the Michigan Wolverines. Losing Shonn Greene doesn't help, but as you will see, there are reasons for optimism among the Hawkeye faithful.

Iowa players you should care about:

If you've been living under a rock since the bowl season, breathe a sigh of relief: Shonn Greene is gone. But the Iowa running back situation isn't quite as desperate as it seemed a year ago, when the prospect of Starter: Paki O'Meara horrified the Hawkeye masses prior to Shonn Greene's triumphant arrival. Looking to fill Greene's Shaq-sized 1800-yard back shoes will be Jewel Hampton, provided. Hampton played pretty well in spot duty last year, carrying the ball 91 times for 5.1 yards a pop. He has to stay healthy, and that's not going so well. The passing game revolves around Ricky Stanzi, who has given Iowa football something it has sorely lacked since Drew Tate's sophomore year with consistent play at the quarterback position, but Derrell Johnson-Koulianos needs to get himself back in the good graces of the coaching staff, who have placed him third (!) on the fall depth chart. Ferentz isn't a total idiot, so I imagine Koulianos will get back on the field, in a starting capacity, and he'll do it by September 5th.

Iowa's defense was solid last year, and the fact that seven of the top ten tacklers return may may you a bit queasier about the game, but remember: two of the best players on last year's defense, Mitch King and Matt Kroul, are goners. Iowa won't find anyone who'll even approximate their interior dominance, but if they can just get close enough to it, they're a lock to be a top-3 Big Ten defense. Pat Angerer - who continues a proud Iowa tradition of fantastically-named defenders like Klinkenborg and Humpal - is the leader of the defense.

Fun with statistics:

I do not doubt that Ricky Stanzi is good, but I must admit, I smirked a bit when I saw that 8 of his 14 touchdown passes came against FIU, Indiana and Minnesota.

With the departure of Andy Brodell and Brandon Myers, Iowa loses 37 percent of its receving production from last year. Might not seem like much, but Myers notched 34 grabs on the year last year, and the next-most productive receiver caught just 11. The passing attack will rely more on Johnson-Koulianos than ever.

As good as Iowa's defense was last year, the team as a whole notched just seventeen sacks on the season, five of which left with King and Kroul.

My prediction: Ohio State and Iowa have a quite a bit in common this year - quarterbacks looking to improve on breakout first-year seasons, a star runningback being replaced with a capable back-up and a spectacular defense that might end up being sub-par in one key area: the defensive interior. While I expect Ohio State to find a fairly good replacement to Nader Abdallah, it seems Iowa is just going to throw in a batch of random bodies alongside Karl Klug and hope someone does something other than breathe. Iowa's defense will still be very good, but it almost has to take a hit with the departure of "Kroul and Unusual Punishment", and I'm banking on that. At the very least, I'm hoping it does take a hit, because Iowa's '08 defense was statistically superior to Ohio State's, though it's doubtful they played an offense as good as USC's or Texas'. Expect this game to look a lot like the trip to Happy Valley the week prior, only this time, Ohio State will be able to pass its way out of an early deficit to secure a 24-16 win.

A Hawkeye's Thoughts: Hawkeye State from BHGP was kind enough to give us his thoughts on the game, and Iowa's season in general.

1. Give me one reason the Big Ten should fear Iowa in 2009.

Which team in the top half of the final Big Ten standings returns 18 of 23 starters from a year ago, including five all-Conference selections, a quarterback with a year of experience under his belt, the conference's best offensive lineman (and arguably the best line in general), and six of a defensive back seven that led the conference in interceptions. In fact, only Minnesota has more returning starts, and they're still coached by Tim Brewster. Inexperienced Iowa is scary for us. Experienced Iowa is scary for you.

2. Name a player whose name opposing fans should keep in mind when discussing Iowa. Preferably one we don't already know about..

The beauty of the current Iowa depth chart is there are so few unknown quantities: There are only 3 starters to replace on each side of the ball, and the openings on offense have ready-made, experienced replacements. If you need someone you haven't heard of, watch for Broderick Binns, a defensive end. It looks increasingly likely that one of Iowa's returning ends will move inside as a replacement at defensive tackle and open a spot for Binns, who stood out in rotation duty during the second half of last season and has been described as "unblockable" this fall by the staff. Iowa lost Mitch King and Matt Kroul, but it's not completely out of the question that the defensive line will be better against the pass and competent against the run. Binns will likely be the key.

3. Taking off the black and gold rec specs for a minute - what do you think Iowa's record will be in 2009?

I'm saying 8-4, followed by a bowl win. Ferentz made a good point last week: It's possible - maybe even likely - that Iowa is a better team this season but doesn't have the record to show for it. Road games against Iowa State, Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are all certainly losable, and the home contests against Northwestern and Michigan are far from gimmies. I can't see Iowa getting through the road schedule with less than three losses, and it's certainly possible they lose a fourth or drop a game at Kinnick. With that said, getting Ohio State late in the schedule gives the Hawks a shot to repeat the Penn State upset from last season; Ferentz-era Iowa teams show near-uniform improvement over the course of the year, and getting them late in the season is a curse generally reserved for Wisconsin and Minnesota.

4. Was Kirk Ferentz ever genuinely on the hot seat in Iowa city? If so, did last season cool it off quite a bit?

No, not really; if he was, he's not anymore. There is a small but vocal minority of the fanbase who call the postgame show and break into hysterics after every loss, but they're not any real threat to the throne. Iowa football, by the very nature of the recruiting base, is a player-development-heavy operation. It's inevitable that, if players don't develop as expected and/or scholarship limits and player attrition force Iowa to field a young lineup, there will be down cycles. That is precisely what happened in 1988-89, when a national championship contender with 29 wins in 3 years, went 11-10-3. It happened in 1992-94, when a 10-1-1 team was followed by three consecutive .500 seasons. And it happened 2006 and 2007, as off-the-field issues decimated the ranks and the most highly-touted (and now clearly most disappointing) recruiting class in school history flamed out. Those with a long view of Iowa football, who have some historical perspective, understand that and refrain from breaking out the torches and pitchforks.

5. Make an off-the-cuff prediction for the Ohio State game.

The Iowa defensive line, never great at getting to the quarterback but always disciplined in containment, stops Pryor from scrambling outside/running the pistol option, and forces him to throw. Given what I saw from your quarterback last year, your returning receivers, and the November date, I feel good about any game where Terrelle Pryor has to throw the ball more than 20 times. Hampton runs effectively behind that line, Stanzi throws as necessary, and Iowa squeaks out a 21-17 win.

That, or we lose by 40.

Pryor has his share of doubters, doesn't he? Nick Siciliano, your time is now.