It's frustrating when a whole team fails to show up in big games, but it's mindbogglin' when one guy routinely doesn't

I'm going to be honest in saying that from about #12 down on my ballot, you could throw all the team names into a hat, draw them at random and rank them along away, and no particular combination would make me bat an eye. It's not that I'm clueless about them (well, most of them), it's just that few of these teams have bona fide star power (looking at you, FSU), or they've got just one guy I'd die to have on my team (Cal, Oregon State). I'm not going to lie to you; I have no idea who Cal's starting quarterback is. But I know they have Jahvid Best, and damn it, Jahvid Best counts for a lot. That's the theme of numbers 16-20; teams whose hopes are all pinned on one or, if they're very lucky, two guys.

20. Oregon State

I saw that Oregon State returned Jacquizz Rodgers, his similarly scary brother James, and Lyle Moevao, and I gotta admit, I bought in. The defensive situation is worrisome: they lose all but one of their interceptions last year, and 24 of their 39 sacks to graduation and the draft. The only Pac-10 offenses that will make them pay for this, however, are USC and their main rival Oregon. Everyone else... probably going to have to outscore the Beavers in a shootout to beat them, but only if Rodgers stays healthy.

19. BYU

Again, I ranked this team mostly because Max Hall and Harvey Unga are back, but when I look at who else is returning - 7 of their top 10 2008 tacklers, 20 of their 22 sacks - I realize that the biggest obstacle they face is replacing early draft entrant Austin Collie. If they can do that, then it's time to get excited, because TCU, Utah, and Florida State all come to Provo. Winning two out of those three games may put them on the edges of the top ten, even, but obviously, I don't expect that to happen.

18.  Florida State

This may seem like a pity placement, but really, I expect the Christian Ponder era to be a marked improvement over the Drew Weatherford "era" (if you can call it that), if only because Ponder has a reliable set of legs that can get him away from pressure, something he will probably experience quite a bit operating behind Florida State's porous offensive line. Running back Jermaine Thomas was very solid last year as a freshman at FSU, and while FSU won't be a powerful, between-the-tackles running attack soon, the future looks bright. Unfortunately, the schedule dims the outlook just a tad. The 'Noles play at Clemson, Boston College, and Wake Forest, to go with the season ending trip to take on the mighty Gators in the Swamp. Any more than one out of those four would probably take a miracle.

17. Georgia

I'm a little antsy placing Georgia this low, because I know their subpar performance in 2008 had a lot to do with injuries forcing young players into starting roles, moves which resulted in blowouts aganst Florida, Alabama and culminated in surrendering an unfathomable 409 yards on the ground to rival Georgia Tech's vaunted triple option attack. Dawg fans are hoping that getting those guys some experience - even bad experience, in many cases - should help their chances in '09. But I'm not sure that it will be enough to overcome a brand-spankin'  new quarterback and running back.

For the record, this is probably one of the two or three teams I'm most unsure on. They genuinely seem like an outfit that can go either way in the polls; it all hinges on whether the defense approves from a disastrous, no-good 2008.

16.  Cal

It's all about Jahvid Best. If he gets hurt, stick a fork in the Golden Bears. If he stays healthy, they're a top-20 outfit bound for the Holiday Bowl or better. Jahvid Best hasn't quite gotten the love he deserves, and it seems grossly unfair. He's playing in a league that went undefeated in bowl games last year, on a team that finished with a respectable nine wins, and he averaged 8.1 YPC in 2008. So why isn't he a bigger factor in the Heisman race?  His most impressive outings of the year were against Miami, Washington (a game in which he averaged 16 YPC), Washington State and a tanking Stanford club. He's an exceptional athlete and all that, but he needs to start producing against the better teams if Cal wants to finish better than this at the end of the season.