Cloned from Tiller's 'stache. DIABEETUS!

With ascendancy of Danny Hope to the head job at Purdue, it's difficult to tell whether things are going up or down for the football program. The simple answer is that things will probably largely stay the same. In his first few months, Hope has touted building a pipeline to the talent-rich, speedy state of Florida, and in the '09 class it worked out okay: they nabbed 14 prospects from the Sunshine State, four of them three stars and the rest a bevy of two-stars (according to Scout). Overall, it was the 63rd best class in the country. At Ohio State, that's an atrocity. At Purdue, it's MOTS. Expectations are different in West Lafayette, undeniably. Most Boilermakers fans are at least hoping (er... wishing?) he somehow improves on Tiller's record against the best teams on Purdue's slate in his final four years:

(Chart courtesy Dr. Saturday)

The game against Ohio State on October 17th will be Hope's first team's third chance to really impress the fanbase and the country at large, after an early road date with the Ducks in Eugene, Oregon and a home game against Notre Dame. By the time this game rolls around, Ohio State's offense should be a cohesive unit, but then again, last year I thought it had jelled before Purdue held Ohio State without an offensive touchdown for four drowsy quarters in Columbus. In 2007, when the line play was far better, Purdue held pre-meltdown Boeckman and a healthy Beanie Wells-led offense to just 23 points. Two does not a trend make, but nevertheless, I have a feeling Purdue knows how to stop, or at least slow down, the Ohio State offense. Players you should care about, relevant and interesting stats, my prediction, and a short interview with a Boiler blogger after the jump.

Boilermakers you should care about:

Korey Sheets has graduated, having exhausted his 32nd year of eligibility and headed into a retirement home a comfy north-central Indiana retirement home. There are no immediate saviors availabe for a rushing offense that finished 86th in the country last year, but Dan Dierking is going to try, damn it. His job: provide some semblance of a balance to an offense starting anew with senior Joey Elliot, who last year got beat out by converted running back-cum-goner Justin Siller, who torched Michigan before self-immolating against Michigan State and Iowa, only to get kicked out of school in the offseason. Elliot completed 8 of 15 passes last year for 81 yards, so it's safe to say he's at least a bit of a question mark. On defense, this guy:

Rehring: "Sigh. I need something to wake me up. Tea, coffee, rack of lamb...."

... by the name of Ryan Kerrigan absolutely chewed up whoever Ohio State put on him in Columbus last year, notching two of his seven sacks on the year and constantly applying pressure to a bewildered Pryor. He's probably going to demand double teams again this year. David Pender and Brandon King are not shutdown DBs, but they're solid three-year starters who headed up the Big Ten's 2nd-best pass defense in terms of total yards allowed last year. Before you let that stat scare you, remember that Purdue also had the worst rush defense in the conference last year. Still, they held Ohio State to 125 yards on 42 attempts - fewer than 3 YPC - so I wouldn't take anything as a given.

Interesting / Relevant Statistics and facts: (numbers garnered from College Football Stats and the NCAA Statistics Website)

Purdue truly defined the aerial assault-oriented team in at least one way last year: anything pertaining to the ground attacks, either their own or their opponent's, didn't look good on paper. Purdue finished last in the conference in rush D, but they also finished 2nd-to-last in rushing offense. They were held to fewer than 5 YPC by 9 of their 12 opponents, and scored 12 of their 19 rushing TDs against defensive powerhouses Indiana, Michigan, Central Michigan and Northern Colorado. Ohio State, Iowa, and even Minnesota held them without a rushing touchdown.

Purdue surrendered more than 100 yards on the ground to every single freaking opponent in '08, allowing more than 200 yards four times and 306 yards to Oregon.

Perhaps because teams didn't need to pass on them, Purdue surrendered fewer than 200 yards through the air to five of their twelve opponents, and five teams didn't pass for a score on them.

Purdue loses 85 percent of its yards from scrimmage to the draft and graduation. It's rebuilding time in West Lafayette.

My prediction: This will not be a walk in the park for Ohio State. It's a road game, and (probably) the first one that won't feel like a de facto home game - Toledo is a neutral site game in Cleveland and Indiana is Indiana - so it will be a lot more challenging than people are giving it credit for. Expect Ryan Kerrigan to against cause trouble, slowing down the offense by himself in some cases. Purdue's offense is going to move the ball, as it always does, but the game will hinge on whether or not Purdue settles for field goals or actually scores touchdowns this time around, sometime before the final minute. Despite a lackluster showing from the passing attack, Ohio State will leave West Lafayette with a 23-13 win.

A Boilermaker's Thoughts:

To give a bit more balanced perspective to these previews, I'm going to ask a few questions of one of the opponent's SBN bloggers, if they have one. Fortunately, Purdue has an excellent blog by the name of Hammer and Rails and BoilerTMill was gracious enough to answer some questions:

 What Purdue players should fans of opposing teams be wary of?

BoilerTMill: I think people should really watch out for Joey Elliott. Yes, he doesn't have much game experience, but he has four years of practice and film study. The kid is a film nut. He wants to get into coaching and is embracing the role of coach on the field. He has done well the few times he has played. He has been more mobile than Painter was and likely would have played more last season if not for a shoulder injury at Northwestern. He has had a very similar career path to Billy Dicken, our 1997 quarterback that came out of nowhere to win first team all-Big Ten honors.

On defense I would look out for defensive end Ryan Kerrigan. He appears to be the next great defensive end for us. If he can create havoc in the backfield by himself we should have an excellent pass defense once again.

What do you honestly think Purdue's record will be at the end of the regular season?

BoilerTMill: I am bucking the trend of the media and saying we will win at least six games. Indiana, Northern Illinois, and Toledo have to be wins. We also need to take two out of four at home from Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan State, and NOtre Dame. Do that, and we need just one road win at Minnesota or Wisconsin, who aren't overwhelming. I think we will finally end the losing streak against ranked teams by shocking someone, and I think it will be Oregon. No one is giving us a chance in that game, but the Ducks have to replace a lot of players in key positions. We played htem well last year, and coach Hope will have this team not fearing Autzen Stadium.

 Give us a prediction for the game against Ohio State.

BoilerTMill: Ohio State is a strange game becuase we always seem to play you guys well. Our defense played out of its mind last season, but as was the case in 2007, we had virtually no offnese. If we can repeat that defensive performance with most of the same players back it could get really interesting. By that game, our offense should be functioning better than int he beginning of the year. You guys will still be favored, but who knows? If we can keep the game close, as we have done recently, we will have a chance.

So, he seems optimistic, and I agree with him; if Purdue can simply score, its defensive record lately against Ohio State tells me this game could get quite interesting. What say you?