What's the worst that can happen?*

First thing first, the scale of win/loss likelihood:

Likely loss: less than 20 percent chance of Ohio State winning

Probable loss: between 20 and 45 percent chance of Ohio State winning

Toss-up: 46-54 percent chance of Ohio State winning

Probable win: 54-75 percent chance of Ohio State winning

Likely win: 75-99 percent chance of Ohio State winning

Guaranteed win: If Ohio State loses, I will hang myself and demand my family post pictures of it on the internet for all to see.

Yes, this system is arbitrary and flawed. It's the hard offseason. Get over yourself.

Navy

Record vs. final Top 25 last 5 years: 0-4

Record vs. opponents with a winning record last 5 years: 6-15

At first blush, it's: a second-half-awakening-of-the-offense-fueled blowout win.

My abbreviated thoughts: As I asserted in the preview, Navy is one of the most difficult teams Ohio State could face when breaking in two new linebackers. If the play of the linebackers isn't anything more than average, this game won't be decided until the fourth quarter.

So, it's a: Likely win. Worst-case-scenario Ohio State is 1-0 on the season.

USC

Record vs final Top 25 last 5 years: 18-4

Record vs. winning opponents last 5 years: 28-5

At first blush, it's: Yet another frustrating big game loss

My abbreviated thoughts: USC's record against top-25 opponents shows that they don't fuck around. Those four losses are to Texas, Oregon State, Oregon (with sophomore back-up Mark Sanchez starting over the injured John David Booty), and Oregon State again. Solution: relocate to Oregon.

So, it's a:  Likely loss. The only one on the schedule, in my estimation. Theoretical worst-case-scenario Ohio State is 1-1 on the season.

Toledo

Record vs final Top 25 last 5 years: 0-1, that one loss being a 45-13 mushroom-printing at the hands of Kansas

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 7-18

At first blush, it's: Another blowout with a slow start

My abbreviated thoughts: Toledo simply doesn't matchup at all against top competition. Yeah, yeah, lolMichigan and all that, but if Ohio State plays as badly as Michigan did against Toledo, it deserves to lose..

So it's a: Guaranteed win, one of just three on the entire schedule. Theoretical worst-case-scenario Ohio State is now 2-1 on the season.

Illinois

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 3-17

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years:  7-27

At first blush, it's:  A scary, close game, with a surprising amount of points scored. Ohio State should win in the end after Illinois wears out. *crosses fingers*

My abbreviated thoughts: Illinois' record vs. top-25 and winning opponents may seem laughable, but those numbers are hurt by the latter years of the Turner era and Ron Zook's disastrous first season. However, Illinois went from 5-3 against opponents with a winning record in 2007 to a shocking 1-7 against winners in '08.

So it's a: Toss-up. I mean it, guys. Illinois was bad last year; I will not argue this. But Ron Zook's offenses have found consistent success against Jim Heacock's defenses. Since this is a worst-case scenario, chalk the Illini up for another close win in Columbus and a 2-2 start to a worst-case 2009.

Indiana

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 0-12

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 3-19

At first blush, it's:  A start-to-finish blowout

My abbreviated thoughts: The only real win of note for Indiana the last five years was its inexplicable 21-19 W over Northwestern just last year. Outside of that, it's what you'd expect from Indiana. Ohio State shouldn't have any trouble putting them away.

So it's a: Guaranteed win. This theoretical Buckeye squad is 3-2 on the season.

Wisconsin

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 5-12

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 14-15

At first blush, it's: Closer than you might think.

My abbreviated thoughts: Bret Bielema is yet another Big Ten coach who seems to be losing control of his team, but his offenses still do fairly well against Ohio State defenses. Nevertheless, this is a game Ohio State should win.

So it's a: Toss-up. The Badgers always play us tough, even if they tend to fade in the 4th quarter. I'm calling it a close win in a worst-case scenario. Theoretical worst-case scenario Ohio State moves to 4-2 on the season. 

Purdue

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 1-17

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 5-30

At first blush, it's: a 10-14 point win over a younger team with a depleted roster.

My abbreviated thoughts: Purdue has played us fairly close two years running, and Purdue's only win against a top-25 opponent in the last five years was against Ohio State. As I said in the preview, Purdue' absolutely must force turnovers to win, and that's only going to work if it can limit Ohio State's offense again, and actually score touchdowns in the red zone.

So it's a: Probable win. If a toss-up is 50/50, this one is 60/40. I actually feel a little arrogant not chalking this one up as a toss-up, because Purdue's history of playing us close is worrisome, to say the least. Your theoretical, worst-case scenario Ohio State team (with Pryor under center) is 5-2 on the season.

Minnesota

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 0-17

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 4-29

At first blush, it's: A similar game to last year's; roughly as close as the scoreboard indicates at the end of the day. A win, barring catastrophe.

My abbreviated thoughts: It's a home game against a team breaking in a new offensive system with players equipped to play one that's a little more spready.

So it's a: Likely win, and edging toward guaranteed.

New Mexico State

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 0-6

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 3-25

At first blush, it's: A start-to-finish blowout.

My abbreviated thoughts: Even in the genuine worst case scenario - i.e. Pryor's knees exploding - this is a win. That's how bad New Mexico State is.

So it's a: Guaran-damn-teed, write-it-down, seal-it-up, lovingly-wrap-it-in-bubble-paper win. The Ohio State team of your almost-worst nightmares is now a respectable 7-2 on the season.

Penn State

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 8-13

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 17-17

At first blush, it's: A close game that could go either way.

My abbreviated thoughts: The series of late is in interesting one; you've got two low-scoring Penn State defensive masterpiece wins that bookend two decisive Ohio State blowouts. The all-time series is, as I'm sure you've all been reminded countless times by Penn State fans, fairly even. This decade, however, it's a bit of a different story:

But, neverthless, outside of 2000, 2006 and 2007, the games have been close, and I expect 2009 to be no different, worst case scenario or not.

So it's a: Toss-up. As this is a worst-case scenario, let's say Ohio State drops this one and falls to 7-3 on the season.

Iowa

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 6-10

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 16-18

At first blush, it's: Another close game, regardless of the worst-case scenario outlook.

My abbreviated thoughts: Ohio State's last two games against the Hawkeyes were ugly blowouts, sure, but as you'll see in the preview, Iowa has a fighting chance in this one, and it's all dependent on the development of one Jewel Hampton.

So it's a: Toss-up. Given that so far, Ohio State has only lost one seemingly out-of-nowhere game in this evaluation in Illinois, I'm going to give this one to the Hawkeyes. That puts the Buckeyes at 7-4 on the theoretical season.

Michigan

Record vs final top 25 last 5 years: 7-15

Record vs winning opponents last 5 years: 19-19

At first blush, it's: A 10-14 point win after a slow start against an improved Michigan offense.

My abbreviated thoughts: While Michigan fans will almost assuredly be waking up the ghosts of 1969 when Ohio State rolls into town this fall, the excitement may be quelled a bit by Ohio State's lackluster record heading into the game should this indeed be worst-case scenario season.

So it's a: Probable win, but close to a toss-up. I think Greg Robinson was a gigantic letdown of a hire for Michigan; the third or fourth least sexy hire this side of bringing back Ron English, and I don't think the defense will be anything approaching respectable this year. Add that onto the fact that Rodriguez will be still be working out the kinks of a true freshman quarterback, and I don't think Michigan has the greatest of chances in this game.

Thus, with a win in Ann Arbor, this theoretical Ohio State team finishes the season at 8-4. The Outback bowl, and a chance to redeem the season (and in some small ways, the program) with a New Year's Day victory over an SEC squad, both beckon. Keep in mind this is the worst case scenario*, but that even with Pryor injured, I still think Ohio State ends up in a bowl. The Motor City bowl, perhaps? Who knows. I'd rather not think about it.

But remember: the above prediction is me at my most pessimistic. The loss to Iowa strikes me as a bit of a stretch (sorry BHGP), but hopefully Swingin' Dick Stanzi will prove me wrong by throwing for 800 yards against whatever FCS team Iowa opens against (ed. note: Ha! That last bit was intended a joke, but they really do open up against Eastern Illinois - Tony Romo's alma mater - on the 5th.) To me, worst-case scenario implies an inexplicable loss or two; like, say Purdue in 2004, where some team that finishes 5th or 6th in the Big Ten standings rises up and smacks the good guys with a confusing loss. That would be Illinois in this hellish scenario, actually.

So what do you think? Do you think this worst-case scenario is too pessimistic? Perhaps too optimistic for you world-hating cretins out there? Am I giving someone a short shrift? Or am I giving someone too much benefit of the doubt? Let me know in the comments.