An Early Look: Navy

Before you LOL heartily, that's actually Delaware getting toasted there, not the Wolverines (via thestartingfive.files.wordpress.com)

When Ohio State scheduled Navy as the 2009 home opener, anyone who pays attention to college football labeled it a trap game for various reasons: Southern Cal comes to town the very next week. Navy has made six straight bowl games. In recent years they have beaten Notre Dame, an improved Wake Forest, and gave Boston College one hell of a game in the Meineke Car Care Bowl a few years back. Now, I understand if none of that strikes fear in your hearts, as there are no USCs, Michigans, Texases or Oklahomas on Navy's small collection of the skulls of upset/scared shitless teams. However, when Ohio State trots out two new starting linebackers this fall, Navy's triple-option attack is guaranteed to make them do work. If the offense isn't immediately in sync from the first snap - which I can guarantee it won't be - this will be a much closer game than many give it credit for.

Midshipmen You Should Care About:

Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, or as my brother calls him, "a series of clicks, grunts and whistles", is gone. As are Shun White and Eric Kettani, the two leading rushers for the Midshipmen in 2008. In fact, the only returning rusher of note is the new quarterback: Ricky Dobbs, who in limited action last year completed 9 of 16 passes for 212 yard but rushed for 495 yards and 8 touchdowns. Dobbs is the protoypical Navy quarterback, meaning that he's essentially a converted running back with a slight gun for an arm and even slighter decision-making in the pocket. No one expects Navy to tear up Ohio State through the air, but there's a good chance Dobbs will get his yards when before is said and done.

On defense, linebackers Ross Pospisil and Ram Vela (of LOLDomers fame) return to lead a defense that finished a respectable (for a service academy) 53rd in total defense in 2008, and 46th against the run. In 2008, Navy surrended 200 or more yards to five different teams, giving up 15 touchdowns on the ground to those teams. While Pospisil and Vela may put up some nice-looking numbers, the overall defense is lacking.

Interesting / Relevant Statistics and facts: ( numbers garnered from College Football Stats and the NCAA Statistics Website)

- Navy hasn't fielded a top-50 defense once in the last five years

- Navy has led the country in rushing offense for three straight years

- On the flip-side, they have been ranked either dead last or next-to-last in passing offense every single year since 2004, as far back as CFS goes

- Before you get all excited about Navy's strength playing right into the Buckeyes hands, they haven't been held under 100 yards rushing in the last five years.

- Statistically, Navy lost 4 of their top 5 rushers, 2 or their top 3 passers, 3 of their top 4 "receivers" and 3 of their top 6 tacklers to graduation.

Early prediction: Ohio State's defense may be quite stout against the run, by sheer force of will Navy will top 100 yards rushing in the first three quarters. Their opening drive will be key to an upset. Just a field goal might get Buckeye fans squirming in their seats and the new starters in the linebacking corps a little on edge. Eventually though, the defense will settle down, but it's going to take at least a half. The Ohio State defensive interior will look a bit suspect in the early going, setting up major worries for the USC game but in the end, it will only amount to around 10-14 Navy points. I don't expect Terrelle Pryor to be asked to attempt any more than 15 passes. The Ohio State rushing attack will take over in the second half and the Buckeyes will stumble into a clunky 30-10 victory, amid much gnashing of teeth about the success Navy had moving the ball on the ground, in spite of the fact that any small bit of statistical analysis shows they have some measure of success against basically everybody.

At first blush, this looks like a tough game that could catch an inexperienced Buckeye squad off guard, but in the end, Navy doesn't have the athletes, the passing game, or the linebackers to make this anything more than a Troy-style scare.

If we win: I'll shrug, type up the re-cap and go back to crafting my Navy dynasty on NCAA '10

If we lose:

This:

On repeat. Every hour. For a week.

What do you think? Am I underestimating the Midshipmen here?