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Sans Evan Turner, are we screwed?

Evan Turner is out for eight weeks. This being a sports injury, that probably means he's out 7 ("we'll work him back in if he does A and B in the recovery process") to 9 weeks ("he aggravated something"). For now, let's take the doctors and the staff at their word: dude's out for eight weeks.

Strictly speaking, eight weeks from December 5th means he'll be ready to play by January 30th, just in time for the Buckeyes' home game against Minnesota on the 31st. How does the schedule look between now and then? Well, after Saturday's game at Butler...

Star-divide

   
Wed, Dec 16 Presbyterian 7:00 pm  
  Sat, Dec 19 Delaware St. 4:00 pm  
  Tue, Dec 22 Cleveland St. 8:30 pm  
  Thu, Dec 31 at (20) Wisconsin 2:00 pm  
  Sun, Jan 3 at Michigan 4:30 pm  
  Wed, Jan 6 Indiana 8:30 pm  
  Sat, Jan 9 at Minnesota 3:30 pm
 
  Tue, Jan 12 at (5) Purdue 7:00 pm  
  Sat, Jan 16 (20) Wisconsin 8:00 pm  
  Tue, Jan 19 Northwestern 7:00 pm  
  Sat, Jan 23 at (6) West Virginia 2:00 pm
  Wed, Jan 27 at Iowa 8:35 pm

 

That's 12 games following Butler, only four of which come against opponents currently ranked (and, given the home-and-home with the Badgers, just three ranked teams overall; for the record, Butler is 22nd in the latest polls). All but a handful of these games is "winnable" in my mind. No amount of improvement, barring miracles upon miracles, will get this team to where it can beat a top-6 team on the road without Turner, so let's assume Purdue and West Virginia are both L's (thereby assuming that neither are presently overranked), we split the series with Wisconsin (also quite a bit to assume), and Butler's a loss in the team's first Turner-less game. That's four losses in this thirteen-game stretch. Not bad, right?

Well, that's the optimistic view. Pessimistically, Ohio State could go as poorly as 5-8 in this stretch and I wouldn't be shocked. The rest of the slate includes Presbyterian, Delaware State, and Cleveland State, as well as disappointing Iowa, Michigan and Indiana squads. The first three are basically guaranteed wins barring unmitigated disaster, and while Iowa, Michigan and Indiana may look weaksauce, each of them is capable of beating Ohio State sans Turner. I've already stated that I just can't see this team beating West Virginia or Purdue on the road (especially considering what WVU did to us last year in the Schott), so those are probable L's. Northwestern is good, and has already upset Notre Dame this year. They too are perfectly capable of beating the Buckeyes, as is Minnesota, but the Hoosiers take the Buckeyes on in Columbus.

 From 9-4 above to 5-8 here seems like a major swing, but it's inevitable: I, like you, have not seen this team without Evan Turner, and don't know what to expect. Obviously, I don't expect them to continue on as if nothing happened, nor do I expect a total collapse. If you want to know where this team will likely fall in reality, it'll probably be somewhere in between the two extremes, as usual. What's important here is the Tourney; Ohio State could emerge from this stretch with as few as five losses on the season and as many as nine (!), which could mean the difference between an actual tournament appearance and one in that other tournament of which we will not speak. Whatever the case, this injury could have come at worse time in the season - three weeks from now, after Presbyterian, DSU and CSU had been righteously slaughtered, leaving the Buckeyes without their star for basically every Big Ten game that matters. So, that's a bright spot. I guess. As it stands, they'll probably get him back just in time to save the season and keep the Buckeyes either on or just above the bubble.

My advice for now: hope for the best; prepare for the worst.

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i feel like that's sound advice...

what do you think this means for next year? do you think ET comes back for his senior season, or is he gonzo? the selfish part of me wants him back — blending with the awesome recruiting class we have coming in. the realistic part of me know’s probably the most NBA ready buckeye matta has ever had…

does the injury effect that decision?

by davereg412 on Dec 8, 2009 11:14 AM EST reply actions  

I think so. Sadly, I don’t think he’ll stick around, unless he’s eager to win an NCAA title, or he thinks this injury would hurt his draft status.. He’s already one of the top 3 players in the country, so why not go and make the big bucks?

Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!

by BLAZER_FAN_199 on Dec 8, 2009 11:59 AM EST up reply actions  

I think this is analogous to the Sam Bradford situation

Turner could have been a first round pick last year, but came back this year to solidify himself as a lottery guy and win a championship. This injury is a frustrating setback, and he’s gonna feel like he needs to bolt to avoid the risk of a) another injury his senior year and b) getting Leinart’d in the draft. I won’t blame him for coming out when he does.

www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com

by Sam @ WWAHT on Dec 8, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

getting leinhart’d — that is fantastic. ha ha hah ah

by davereg412 on Dec 8, 2009 1:43 PM EST reply actions  

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