"Hello" from Eugene, OR
by KingofDucks1987 on Dec 7, 2009 3:06 AM EST
Email
PrintI'm not here to trash talk, I'm actually here to discuss football! Crazy notion, eh? I'm hoping to shed some light on Oregon's team that Sam @ WWHAT didn't really explain to you all. By his post, it appears that he is going from what he has heard on ESPN and seen in statistics. Sam, I mean no disrespect by those statements, I just want to clear the air about Oregon's team.
Let's start with the notion that Oregon is a one-dimensional team. This is simply not true. Actually, Oregon has been so good running the ball through their zone-read that they simply haven't had to throw the ball that much. No one has really been able to "force" Oregon to pass, so, they continue to run the ball. Oregon's receiving corp might be the best blocking receivers in the country. Oreogn's OL is extremely quick and pulls to the outside much more effectively than Michigan was able to against you guys. Michigan has a long way to come to develop their offense to fit the scheme. Oregon is at the top of the pyramid in their ability to run the zone-read. I have never seen cameramen follow the wrong player so many times in one season. What tOSU is going to have to do is adjust to the zone read. You have to stay back on the play and not become too aggressive or Masoli will kill you. The thunder and lightening combination of LeGarrette Blount and LaMichael James is not easy to stop.
Next, let's talk about Masoli passing the ball. Masoli is actually extremely efficient and has simply gotten better and better as the season has progressed. His passing skills were the reason Oregon came back and beat Arizona with a 2-minute drive to send the game to OT. He loves to roll out and force defenders to come up on him and he will beat them over the top. The problem is, defenses try to keep him in the pocket and they learn that he stays very calm in the pocket and if needed, can still squeeze through small holes to escape pressure. He has much better cut skills and agility than Pryor and unlike Pryor, Masoli is small and compact at 5'11 and 220 pounds. Defenders have difficulty tackling him above the waist and it's not easy to get low on him because of his height. He also has a lot of "no-name" receivers who are very reliable and given far too little credit. His top targets are Jeffrey Maehl who is a 6'1 175 lb receiver with incredible hands and leaping ability and Ed Dickson who will be named 1st team all-Pac-10 at TE. He has 4.5 speed at 6'5 245 lbs.
Oregon's defense is incredibly fast. Their linebackers haven't been beaten by a running back all year besides Stanford. Stanford however has a QB, Andrew Luck, who has pinpoint accuracy with great receivers. As well, you don't have Toby Gerhart. From what I have seen, Ohio State's OL is not very impressive and I expect Oregon's speed at LB and DE to give Pryor fits. Oregon has had trouble in the secondary ever since our top corner and his backup were lost for the season to injuries, but they don't give up the big play. Oregon's defensive line is undersized, but has overachieved all season, beating up on USC's offensive line which many consider the best in the country. Watch out for TJ Ward at safety, he is a big hitter. As well, look for Casey Matthews at MLB. His brother CLay plays for the Packers and his Dad was an NFL pro-bowler. He is VERY tough up the middle.
Oregon has an automatic kicker, in Morgan Flint. Flint doesn't have great power, but phenomenal accuracy. He is 15/17 this year and has made 80 straight PATs. Oregon's kick-return specialist is Kenjon Barner and he is lightening.
Lastly, Oregon beats teams in the 2nd half. Oregon is VERY well conditioned. Chip Kelly has put them through an intense conditioning routine since the beginning of the fall camp. Oregon's run game takes advantage of it's quick play-calling and well conditioned offensive line to wear down opposing defenses.
Oregon is not unbeatable by any means, I simply don't believe tOSU to have the tools to expose our weaknesses.
21 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
10 out of 12 teams probably thought the saw way — Oregon being one-dimensional. But they, too, were incorrect.
You don’t beat 4 of the 6 top 25 teams you face by just being one-dimensional.
Just two of those teams Oregon beat actually finished in the top 25, however
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Let's start from the top
No one has really been able to "force" Oregon to pass,
This does not necessarily preclude such a situation from happening, especially when one considers that Oregon has faced just two top-25 rushing defenses. Oregon did a great job against both Oregon State and Arizona State, but only one of those defenses is ranked in the top 25 in terms of total defense (Arizona State, which again, Oregon did well against), so Oregon’s resume against balanced defenses is good, but awfully short; it’s an issue of sample size, and one game simply isn’t enough to base any definitive statements on.
let’s talk about Masoli passing the ball. Masoli is actually extremely efficient and has simply gotten better and better as the season has progressed.
This is true, but again, we’re talking about some rather limited opportunities here, especially against top-tier (top 25) defenses. Against Boise State, he completed 14 of 27 passes for 121 yards and threw a pick. Against Arizona State, he was 10 of 20 for 120 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception. Against Utah, he was 4 of 16 for 95 yards and a pick. Lastly, against Arizona – by far his best game of the season through the air against a good defense – he was 26 of 47 for three touchdowns, 286 yards and a pick.
So, against balanced, elite defenses on the order of Ohio State’s, Masoli is a combined:
54/110 (49%) for 622 yards, and, 5 TDs, 4 INTS,
Masoli threw more than one touchdown against Cal (108th in pass D), Stanford (105th in pass D), Arizona State (24th in pass D), and Arizona (43rd in pass D). Ohio State is 17th in the nation in passing defense; not great, but very good, and better than literally any other defense Masoli has faced SAVE…. Utah, against whom Masoli completed 25 percent of his passes.
I can tell from his stats that he has gotten better as the season progressed; nevertheless, his resume against defenses as good as Ohio State’s leaves a bit to be desired, and is not the resume of a quarterback who can be elite "when he is forced to be".
From what I have seen, Ohio State’s OL is not very impressive and I expect Oregon’s speed at LB and DE to give Pryor fits.
It’s difficult to judge front sevens on teams, but I like to at least try to do it in terms of rushing defense and sacks. Both Iowa and Penn State have a higher-ranked rushing defense than Oregon, and Penn State has slightly more sacks on the season than the Ducks. Now, against Penn State and Iowa:
Ohio State rushed for a combined 457 yards on 100 carries, for an average of 4.57/carry while giving up 2 sacks. This offensive line is not elite, but if the last month of play – against two of the best defenses Ohio State faced all season in back to back weeks – is any indication, they have their act together. They may have some issues, but I don’t think they’ll be embarrassed by Oregon’s "speed".
Oregon’s defensive line is undersized, but has overachieved all season, beating up on USC’s offensive line which many consider the best in the country.
Perhaps at the beginning of the season. I think the rep of USC’s line has taken a bit of a hit since their glory days against San Jose State. Ohio State had quite a bit of success against them as well.
Lastly, Oregon beats teams in the 2nd half. Oregon is VERY well conditioned. Chip Kelly has put them through an intense conditioning routine since the beginning of the fall camp. Oregon’s run game takes advantage of it’s quick play-calling and well conditioned offensive line to wear down opposing defenses.
Every BCS team is well-conditioned. Unless they’re Michigan under Lloyd Carr.
I think I was pretty damn fair in my preview of Oregon. You guys have an excellent team, and a truly deadly rushing attack. But you’re not unbeatable, and you certainly have weaknesses. Weakness that Ohio State is fully equipped to exploit.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Both Iowa and Penn State have a higher-ranked rushing defense than Oregon
This isn’t necessarily true. Penn State has accomplished absolutely nothing this year. They have played a schedule worse on par with TCU. Any statistics like that which you cite need to be taken with a huge grain of salt due to the vastly different schedules which the teams have played.
I prefer to use S&P+ stats from Football Outsiders, as it at least attempts to adjust for strength of schedule. Look at rushing defense through this lens, Oregon is ranked 10th in the country. Penn State is 27th, and Iowa is 13th (Note that the stats have not yet been updated for the most recent week, though I don’t expect much to change).
On Masoli, you make some decent points. He’s certainly not unstoppable, and has some issues, most notably consistency. If he’s accurate, the Oregon offense is almost unstoppable. But it’s also sputtered (did so for 2 quarters during Arizona and 1 during Oregon State). I expect OSU to slow the Ducks in spurts, but I also expect the Ducks to have a few great drives. I feel that the Ducks are simply too explosive to be held down for the entire game.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
I agree, I don't expect Oregon to be contained for the entire game
As the best offense Ohio State has faced, I’d be shocked if they didn’t move the ball, though I expect it to come in fits and starts with a few long drives interspersed, as you do. Completely agree with you here.
Really, the central crux of his argument – that Ohio State doesn’t have the “tools to expose Oregon’s weaknesses” – is what I have an issue with. These teams are evenly matched in terms of athleticism, and defensively, Ohio State can scheme with almost anyone. I find it a tad off-putting to assume that while Oregon may have weaknesses, Ohio State just isn’t “good” enough to expose them. We have our strengths; I just wish he’d acknowledge them more fully.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
My early opinion, Oregon and OSU are matched up very evenly when Oregon has the ball. Both teams are very good, and OSU has the athletes to limit Oregon’s success.
I think the key to the game will be Terrelle Pryor and how he plays. The only team that was very successful against the Oregon defense was Stanford, and they did that through bruising power, but the real key was down the field passing success. Oregon will dare OSU to do that, just as they have dared many QBs to do that.
The key to this will be limiting OSU’s rushing success on first and second down, and I believe the Duck defense can do this. They may give up big runs here and there, but they are explosive enough on defense to force the other teams into passing situations, and OSU is below average in that area (according to Football Outsiders)
Can Pryor exploit that? Yes, he can, but I believe that Oregon has most of the advantages in that matchup.
--AddictedToQuack, SBNation's Oregon Ducks blog
You are talking apples and Oranges.
Pac-10 defenses typically play more explosive and tougher offenses. Naturally, their statistics will be inflated.
As for conditioning, Oregon is a different monster you have to prepare for. Ohio State likes to sub their defenders to stay fresh, but Oregon’s “quick to the line” approach doesn’t allow for substitutions and defenses get very worn down by the beginning of the 3rd quarter.
Section 314 FTW!
by KingofDucks1987 on Dec 9, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions
Please
Pac-10 defenses typically play more explosive and tougher offenses. Naturally, their statistics will be inflated.
This is the definition of “chicken-egg”. Are Pac-10 offenses amazing, or are pac-10 defenses bad? We were asking the same question about the Big 12 heading into the postseason last year, and we basically got our answer when Big 12 offenses were largely silenced in the postseason.
As for conditioning, Oregon is a different monster you have to prepare for. Ohio State likes to sub their defenders to stay fresh, but Oregon’s "quick to the line" approach doesn’t allow for substitutions and defenses get very worn down by the beginning of the 3rd quarter.
You do realize most spread offenses use the “quick-to-the-line” (most call it the “no-huddle”) approach, and that Ohio State has faced this attack multiple times this year? True, when the ball is actually snapped, these offenses aren’t as productive as Oregon’s, but the approach is the same.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Since the Pac-10 was undefeated in bowl games last year...
and was .21-9 against OOC opponents this year (remember, we actually schedule tough opponents), it’s our offenses. And as we saw with Tressel over the past few years, he can’t beat teams that are effective with the spread.
Section 314 FTW!
by KingofDucks1987 on Dec 9, 2009 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
What is with Oregon fans and a complete inability to give Ohio State any credit whatsoever?
Who were those OOC opponents again this year? Ohio State, Georgia (a loss), Minnesota, Tennessee, Iowa (a double-digit loss), Cincy (a double-digit loss) and…? Boise State (another double-digit loss)?
Sure, you schedule fairly well. Doesn’t seem to be working out nearly as well as you think.
Tressel can’t beat teams that are effective with the spread? Tressel held the Big Ten’s second best offense – which runs a spread – to 7 points on the road this year. He also held them to 13 points last year, 11 points less than the Pac-10’s very own Southern Cal, far and away the conference’s best defense. His teams have no more issues with the spread than any other sort of offense, and I really wish you’d stop peddling this ESPN nonsense.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Masoli was inconsistent in the beginning of the year...
and had one bad statistical performance after UTAH against ASU when we jumped to a huge lead. CK never really allowed the passing game to get a head a steam. We were trying to conserve for the brutal two games that followed.
The inconsistencies in the beginning of the year were a result of a completely retooled oline that sent three to the NFL and 6 total in the two deep to graduation. Likewise, we lost our two marquee wide receivers. There was an adjustment period that ended in the Cal game.
In any case, our rushing attack was held to under 200+ in conference play. Pac-10 rushing defenses had to face Antolin/Grisby, Best/Vareen, LMJ/Blount, Polk, GERHART, JAQUIZZ RODGERS, et al. We have by far and away the best stable of runningbacks in the country.
That, or you have a subpar collection of run defenses.
We don’t know, and we won’t know until the bowl season is over. Remember last year, when the Big 12 had the best set of quarterbacks in the country? It didn’t bear out quite that way in the postseason. Might happen again, might not. Not sure any sweeping statements can be made just yet.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Oh
and before you think I’m “impugning your conference’s honor” or anything like that, I’m not. I just think “OUR RUNNINGBACKS > EVERYONE ELSE’S” is an incredibly presumptuous statement to make considering you’re operating on a very limited set of games against quality OOC opponents.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Did you watch...
Best, Gerhart, Quizz, LMJ and co.? All I know is that head to head USC stuffed you for under 100 yards and then we turned around and smoked them. I’ve been watching Pac-10 football forever and this is definitely the year of the runningback. Gerhart is huge, Best is dynamic, LMJ has elite speed and more lateral quickness than any other Oregon runningback I’ve seen, and Quizz has such a low center of gravity that no one can bring him down. All of these runningbacks have special qualities. I watched Big-10 because they were always on after gameday. I watched Hardesty, Ingram, Scott, et al. of the SEC and I would say that I would take our stable. Heck, I didn’t even include McKnight, Johnson and Bradford of SC.
I watched all of those running backs...
and guess what? They were awesome. Against Pac-10 defenses. Against quality OOC opponents, the resume is limited, and that’s why I’m not buying this “BEST RBS IN THE COUNTRY” swill. We heard the exact same arguments about McCoy, Bradford, Daniel, Robinson, and Reesing last year in the Big 12. How’d that work out for them?
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Again, there's a chance, you're completely right. I'm not denying this.
There’s also a chance you’re wrong, and for whatever reason, you fail to acknowledge it and instead keep trumpeting this “BEST RBS in the country” stuff like it’s gospel.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Oh, and if we're talking straight-up rushing offenses
The Big Ten has five teams in the top 50 in rushing O; three in the top 25
The Pac-10 has five teams in the top-50; two (Oregon and Stanford) in the top 25
Perhaps at the top, with Best, James and Gearhart, the Pac-10 is better than the Big Ten’s best with Clay and Royster, but overall – and especially in terms of production when considering the Big Ten has three top-10 rushing defenses to the Pac-10’s none – it’s far more equal than you’re willing to let on.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
by Sam @ WWAHT on Dec 9, 2009 1:08 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Some good discussions in this thread, but I'm noticing a tonal shift
I’d prefer objective, fair analysis to meaningless conference pissing contests, evidenced by statements like this:
remember, we actually schedule tough opponents
Start giving Ohio State and the Big Ten some credit. We’re not C-USA.
Ducks87: I liked your argument more in your first post, when all you alleged was that Ohio State does not have the “tools” to expose Oregon’s weaknesses. You could be right, but for now, I disagree wholeheartedly and think Ohio State is far better than any Oregon fan here – outside of JTlight, who has been all-class – is willing to give them credit for.
Feel free to start another thread, but I’m locking this one before all this Big 10 – Pac 10 crap gets out of hand. Again.
www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
