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Oregon Preview: Offense, final prediction and a very fond farewell

Alright, let's get this out of the way first: Oregon is not going to get "exposed" by a top-10 defense, it has faced athletic, competent defenses before, and it has done well against them. Boise State was not a "fluke" per se, but it's impossible to deny that the Oregon offense has progressed since then. It's not the most balanced of attacks, but it doesn't have to be when it averages 236 yards on the ground. I feel safe in saying that just slowing down Oregon's offense will be the biggest challenge Ohio State's defense has confronted this year.

Is it up to the task? Well, the match-ups are roughly even across the board, but there are a few to worry about. Let's take a look at them.

Star-divide

The focal point of the Oregon attack is Jeremiah Masoli. Stopping him - not an easy task - will go a long way in stopping the offense as a whole. There are a lot of responsibilities the defense has in stopping a quarterback like Masoli (meaning one who runs the spread-option attack efficiently and intelligently) - containing him when he runs, forcing him to make the smart, accurate throw when he passes, all while making sure Oregon's dangerous tailbacks aren't the ones who actually have the ball. Putting a spy on Jeremiah Masoli for the entire game would be unwise: it removes one player from pass coverage, and while he's not the most pinpoint accurate passer, he's good enough to diagnose coverages and make the right throw. He's roughly as dangerous as spread-option quarterbacks come when they're not Pat White.

Containment of Masoli is also far more difficult than it is with most option signal-callers. Masoli is stout and strong, not nimble and lithe like Pat White, or more appropriately, Tate Forcier. He's big enough to run guys over, so arm-tackles will not be an option for the Ohio State defense. Fortunately, Brian Rolle and Ross Homan might be two of the best wrap-up tacklers Jim Tressel has had, and - provided they're in position (and they usually are) - will be a huge asset to Ohio State's defensive gameplan.

LaMichael James will be the best tailback Ohio State has seen all year. Evan Royster and John Clay are both very good, but neither is as quick, elusive or productive as James. They just aren't similar backs, so it's tough to project how well Ohio State's defense will fare when James has the ball in his hands. Typically, the Buckeyes shut down a back regardless of his skill set, but I'm not sure Ohio State has actually seen a back like James since healthy, starting Joe McKnight in 2008. McKnight was also the last back to get over 100 yards by himself against the Buckeyes, so it appears the Buckeye D has its work cut out for itself.

Legarette Blount will likely get some time behind James, but his role in the offense has been diminished following his suspension for the post-Boise meltdown. I wouldn't be shocked if Oregon tries to get him some more touches in his final game as a Duck; he showed against Oregon State that he still has "it" in him.

A fourth name to keep an eye on in Oregon's ground attack is Kenjon Barner. Barner's just a freshman, with only a little over 300 yards on the season, but he's a vital aspect of some of Oregon's trickier plays. Frequently, he's the third option when Oregon runs its variation of the triple option, and is a quick, versatile player that Ohio State will have to respect as that third threat. I would look for Oregon to try to get this guy matched up with Anderson Russell when Ohio State's in nickel and dime packages.

I take some solace in Ohio State's resumé of dominating rushing attacks post-Navy (and, in the end they still ended up holding the Middies to 86 yards below their season average), but it has to be limited: Navy had success against Ohio State, and Oregon is - easily - the best rushing offense Ohio State has seen since. While I disagree with the notion that Ohio State has simply "never seen" an offense like Oregon's - Illinois, Michigan, and Northwestern all share similar philosophical underpinnings to Chip Kelly's spread - I would agree with the statement that Ohio State has yet to play a rushing attack as talented and able to execute as Oregon's.

The Duck rushing attack is generally so successful that the passing attack gets left on the drawing board in the locker room. Unlike Ohio State, who only breaks out the passing attack when it feels like it (regardless of score), Oregon doesn't pass much because it doesn't have to; Ohio State usually just can't pass. In all seriousness, Oregon's passing game is not particularly complex. Nevertheless, the fact that most of it evolves off of the read-option makes it rather difficult to defend. Jeremiah Masoli is usually apt in recognizing when he has an open man. If Ohio State has Masoli and his backfield mate contained, Masoli has two key weapons he can try to get the ball to: Ed Dickson, a rangy TE with WR speed, and Jeff Maehl: a possession receiver who is very good at fighting for the ball and going across the middle. Neither is a burner, but both are solid enough options against a secondary that, while mostly solid, has given up a few good passing games to average-to-bad passing attacks this year in Purdue and Iowa.

Maehl on Chimdi Chekwa should be a close battle to the end. Don't let Chekwa's rough Iowa game color your perceptions of him too much; in every other game this year, he was solid, and sometimes excellent. But I think Maehl will win his share of battles here, and he has enough to speed to burn a corner who missteps, so a little deep help from Kurt Coleman will be warranted on occasion.

Dickson is the match-up that worries me here, at least in man-to-man: he's too tall for Brian Rolle, just a bit too fast for Ross Homan, and putting Coleman on him removes Kurt from deeper coverage, where he excels, and puts him on a guy that has at least five inches on him. I think Ohio State's going to respond with a lot of zone on obvious passing downs, so that Homan doesn't have to run with him and so that both he and Rolle are at least in the area of Dickson if he makes the catch. Then, it's just an issue of wrapping him up. Still, I think Dickson will get his yards.

Ohio State, on the whole, has been a very disciplined defense this year. Defensive lapses against Purdue and Navy were the exception, not the rule. Fundamentally, this might be the best defense Jim Tressel has coached, and athletically, it is rivaled only by 2005 in the post-2002 era. That being said, I always worry about Ohio State's defensive philosophy in bowl games, especially after three consecutive collapses in the BCS. Ohio State has the talent on hand to slow Oregon down, but it also had that talent on hand against Florida, LSU and Texas, and couldn't get the job done. It's not an issue of Ohio State utilizing a "soft zone" (though the occasional cushion given by the corners can be a little frustrating when it's so obvious) too much, but an issue of developing a fairly generic defensive gameplan and sticking to it regardless of how the opposing offense does against it. This year, I have yet to see Ohio State fail to adjust to new wrinkles in an opposing offensive gameplan, and that is a very encouraging development. If the defensive gameplan is a dynamic, flexible one - even roughly as flexible as Oregon's offensive plan - Ohio State will definitely have a shot to win this game going into the final quarter.

The Buckeyes are going to have to maintain a balance of discipline and aggression in attacking the Oregon offense; focusing too much on either will likely get them burned in one way or another. This game will be a good indicator of how far the defensive staff has come since the games against Florida and LSU. After all, they got the team in position to be an Anderson Russell tackle away from beating Texas, a team many felt "should" have been in the title game, just last year. While I'm not sure I agree with the sentiment surrounding that Texas team, the fact remains that this staff cobbled together a fairly good defensive gameplan that gave Texas what it wanted between the twenties but clamped down excellently in the red zone, forcing turnovers and field goals until that final fateful minute. Oregon's attack is roughly as potent on the ground as Texas' was through the air, and is thus an entirely different beast. If Ohio State manages to hold Oregon to 24 points - a big if - the onus will be on the offense to win the game in the end.

Five predictions to make me look stupid come Saturday:

- Oregon tops 200 yards on the ground - barely, on roughly 40 carries - while Ohio State does not.

- Terrelle Pryor's impact on the game is again marginalized; he won't run much and he won't pass much, opting for "effective" decisions rather than productive ones

- Brandon Saine will solidify himself as next year's starter with a solid outing.

- Ohio State will have a lead at some point, will sit on it for far too long, and will simply watch as Oregon regains the lead in the second half against a tired defense.

- Final Score: Oregon 31, Ohio State 23

Well, ladies and gents, it's been fun. I hope I'm wrong about Friday's game, but it's Jim Tressel in a big game. What do you think will happen? All joking aside, cataloging my frustrations as well as my positive feelings and thoughts on Ohio State athletics has been a very rewarding experience here, and it's one that certainly is not ending any time soon; I'll still be dropping knowledge throughout the Buckeye blogosphere when I get the time. For now, I suggest moseying on over to The Buckeye Battle Cry and getting acquainted with the new Buckeye digs on SBN. The Rose Bowl live thread will be over there. Have a great New Year's, and Go Bucks.

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Again, Sam,

its been an honor sharing frustrations, and jubilations over the last 8 months (that I’ve been here.) Looking forward to your future rants on tBBC. Good luck to you in the future!

Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!

FKA BLAZER_FAN_199. Now an author for the Jackets Cannon!

by Andrew Tolliver on Dec 30, 2009 10:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

it's been a pleasure...

readin’ your stuff, sam. best of luck movin’ forward — look forward to hearing from you on the bbc.

by davereg412 on Dec 30, 2009 10:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for a year of insights.

Go Bucks!

The Rivalry, Esq.
The quintessential Big Ten smoking room.

by Law Buckeye on Dec 30, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

For Ohio to Win...

Obviously it will take a perfect game, good decisions, yadda yadda yadda…

But, strategically, Pryor doesn’t need this game to be his ‘05 Fiesta Bowl, though I know we all wish it could be. All he’s got to do is have fun. The D-Line will be chomping at the bit. The LB’s will play smart. The secondary will prevent the big play (hopefully). The defense as a whole needs to slow down Oregon, but in the literal sense. They can’t control the pace at which Oregon gets to the line and gets a play off. They can, however, force them to string together more plays to get to the endzone. How excited and pumped would you be to run a hurry-up if all you’ve been getting is a couple of yards a play? Oregon plays loose. They’ll gladly go 3 and out a couple times if it puts them in position to snag a huge gain for a TD. If Ohio State forces them to rely on consistency instead of explosiveness they will get frustrated.

As for the offense, the Line will get it’s push up the middle (OSU’s OL outweighs the UO DL by 40 lbs/man). The receivers will block and the backs will take what they’re given. Terrelle Pryor needs to play loose and have fun. That’s it. Oregon, specifically Aliotti, has already tipped their hand that they’re going to try to rattle TP with pressure. TP doesn’t need to win with his arm or his legs. He needs to win with his mind. There are a lot of things a team can do to counter blitzes and pressure. Think of all the little screens to Saine that have gone for nice yards this year. More recently, look at Wisconsin’s response to Miami’s zone blitzing last night.

The underdog role is a waste of time. Ohio State won the 05 Fiesta Bowl because they had confidence and played loose. Same for the games against Texas and Michigan in ‘06. That’s the winning attitude.

"Nothing cleanses the soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."

by RedDevilEA on Dec 30, 2009 1:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oh, one more thing...

Thanks for all the work on the site. I don’t comment often, but I’ve enjoyed the insight. Happy New Year! And Go Bucks!!

"Nothing cleanses the soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."

by RedDevilEA on Dec 30, 2009 1:39 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Sam

We’ll do our best to keep up the excellent tradition you have started here. You know you’re welcome on staff at tBBC anytime you want!

Jeff at The BBC

by Jeff at the BBC on Dec 30, 2009 3:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Good Luck!

I’ll have a post up tomorrow directing everyone towards the new site.

www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com

by Sam @ WWAHT on Dec 30, 2009 7:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh oh,

A buckeye predicting an Oregon win. That HAS to be the kiss of death for us Ducks!

Anatidaephobia-Fear that a Duck is watching you. Pryor, come January 1st, there will be millions watching you. We are banking on your overwhelming football prowess, blessed Juju.

by CaDuck on Dec 30, 2009 8:04 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

What do you mean?

www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com

by Sam @ WWAHT on Dec 30, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sad to say, I also picked the Ducks to win over at BCS Evolution (I had to put my bowl picks up there since this site will be transitioning in the middle of the bowls).

But I will be happily rooting for the Buckeyes to make my pick look foolish.

by talonk on Dec 31, 2009 12:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, and thanks for all your hard work on the site. Am hoping Jeff and his brethren do just as well as you did with your insight.

Hopefully their core posters are more like the SBN posters I am used to conversing with, and not the espn or cleveland.com idiots that just like to scream and yell.

by talonk on Dec 31, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It was just some dry, and most likely poor humor.

A generic “you picked us to win, so we are cursed” kind of thing.

Anatidaephobia-Fear that a Duck is watching you. Pryor, come January 1st, there will be millions watching you. We are banking on your overwhelming football prowess, blessed Juju.

by CaDuck on Dec 31, 2009 1:24 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for all of your opinions and commentary this past year Sam!

by Estrada on Dec 30, 2009 10:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You'll be missed, Sam

Don’t be a stranger

You ain't hurt.

by Peter Bean on Dec 31, 2009 1:50 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Pretty fair analysis, however, OSU does have a very good d-linemen that you fail to mention. B Heyward and T Gibson are will be playing on Sunday somewhere. I think the key is to the game is going to be the OSU offense (or lack there of) vs the Oregon defense. Can OSU put point on the board with no passing game?

by tarponrandy on Dec 31, 2009 1:49 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I see the Buckeyes winning this one in a close low scoring game.

16 – 14

by Simmsinns on Dec 31, 2009 2:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice Summary

I think I agree with your points. Really, Illinois should have been the rehearsal team for Oregon, but along with them underperforming we also played them in terrible weather.

I will miss your blog, Hopefully you’ll still be around commenting on this and other blogs. Also, welcome to the BBC – I have definitely read it, don’t think I ever commented there.

Pogue mahone, man!

by Big Red Dog on Dec 31, 2009 7:50 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Oregon Ducks Tickets

It will be great to watch Oregon Ducks, i have bought tickets from
http://ticketfront.com/event/Oregon_Ducks-tickets looking forward to it.

by Maroussia on Jan 25, 2010 2:42 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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