Oregon Preview: Defense

The debate surrounding Oregon's defense began immediately following the Ducks' 37-33 win over Oregon State, and has yet to cease. Addicted To Quack, using statistical rankings adjusted to reflect strength of schedule, has put forth the reasoned Oregon argument quite well:

Now, I'm not gonna sit here and say that Oregon's defense is better than OSU's. It's not. But, it's a lot closer than any Buckeye fan is willing to admit. Looking at these statistics, Oregon has the 15th ranked defense in the country, and beyond that has the 10th ranked rushing defense in the country (mostly because they have faced a lot of really good rushing teams). These results really shouldn't be a surprise. Oregon is giving up only 4.6 yards per play on the season, good for 11th nationally. And they are giving up only 3.41 yards per rush, good for 24th nationally (again, let's remember that S&P+ takes into account opponent strengths).

And The Rivalry, Esq. has responded with a comparable amount of stat-wonkery:

Adjusted to reflect the quality of opponents, and number of snaps, Ohio State's defense is allowing 26.9% less points per game than Oregon's defense.  Coming into the Rose Bowl Oregon is scoring 8.4 more points a game than Ohio State on average (29.3 points versus 37.7 points).  Adjusting these figures to reflect Ohio State's defensive advantage (e.g. the 26.9 percent scoring differential), the Buckeyes have a 2 point advantage on paper heading into the game.

I suggest reading both articles so that you can fully understand both sides' respective points. You're probably expecting me to take a side here.

Being a chickenshit, I won't. Here's my line of thought: Oregon's defense could very well be terrible - is Ohio State's offense good enough to take advantage of it? Oregon's defense could very well be lights-out, and it may have been a top-ten outfit in the offensively-challenged Big Ten as well - but can Ohio State's offense simply replicate the Penn State game plan (against a top ten rushing defense) and hope to win?

I will say this in agreement with ATQ: I think Oregon's defense is far, far better than most Ohio State fans are giving it credit for, and that anyone that thinks Ohio State is going to bulldoze the undersized Oregon front did not watch either team very much, and certainly did not watch Ohio State's game against Purdue, or Oregon's game against USC. The Buckeyes are perfectly capable of moving the ball on the Ducks, but it's not going to be a walk in the park. I'm not going to take the cheap, easy way out, and sit back and diss the Oregon defense. Their stats aren't the greatest, but they are no slouches. Hell, it's not like they're going up against an unstoppable offense anyway.

We'll know how well Ohio State will do against Oregon's defense in the early stages of this game. Oregon's front seven is undersized on average, relative to most Big Ten defenses - DT Brandon Bair is just 270 pounds, while hybrid DE-OLB Kenny Rowe is just a hair under 230 pounds, and linebacker Eddie Pleasant checks in at around 210. But Oregon isn't just trotting out a bunch of skinny dudes and praying that they don't get run over; these guys are quick and athletic enough to give most offenses - especially attacks as ground-oriented as Ohio State's - quite a bit of trouble.

Brandon Bair is a Doug Worthington type - a DT in a DE's body, and offers many of the same things Worthington does: good pursuit on screens, a big bear paw in the middle of the defense on quick slants, and an excellent pass rush on 3rd and 7+ situations. He isn't really big or strong enough to demand double teams in short-yardage situations, but matching him up with say, Bryant Browning, might be a very fortuitous move for the Ducks. Browning is an excellent roadgrader, but his feet are lacking, and a stunting, mobile Bair could very well give him fits in a way that Jared Odrick could not. Oregon's other DT - Blake Ferras - is in fact, big and broad, like Odrick, and could present just as many problems for the Ohio State interior.

Kenny Rowe is going to be a terror in passing situations. He has 8.5 sacks on the year - almost as many as Cameron Heyward and Thaddeus Gibson combined (9.5) - and as an undersized, quick outside rusher, he's the exact type of end that has given Ohio State's offensive line trouble in the past. Knowing Jim Tressel, Rowe will be limited the only way Jim Tressel knows how: by dropping Terrelle back 20 times at the most while whispering "good luck with that" to Jim Cordle. Cordle has shown improvement over the past few games, working against some very good DEs like Jack Crawford and Brandon Graham, so hopefully it'll translate fairly well to the bowl game. Pleasant is Oregon's 2nd best sack artist, and could be blitzed directly into Ohio State's pocket in the hope of containing Pryor on rollouts.

What Oregon lacks in size up front, it more than makes up for in speed. Even if Ohio State's offensive line manages to blow the Oregon DL off the line of scrimmage (certainly not a given), Brandon Saine and Daniel Herron will probably not have a whole lot in the way of open space to work with in the second level, and will thus be forced to break quite a few tackles. Oregon's linebackers - Pleasant, Casey Matthews, Spencer Paysinger (both with more-than-adequate linebacker size) and occasionally Kenny Rowe -  fly to the ball, and while they may not always make the perfect form tackle, they're in the area and clogging up running lanes. Either way, Ohio State's backs are not renowned for their tackle-breaking ability. I'd expect to see a lot of 3-6 yard gains, along with the requisite amount of stuffs, but very few runs of longer than 10 yards.

(If you're still doubting Oregon's ability to match up against a team with a potent ground attack who really struggles to move the ball through the air, they have done it before. Cal, with Jahvid Best in tow, got completely locked up in Oregon's 2nd-most dominant performance of the year. The Duck defense did a terrific job of stacking the box and bringing the ball-carrier down for minimal gain. They will not be easily bowled over.)

 Ohio State is not going to win this game by "out-athleting" Oregon on offense; it'll have to do it through superior blocking, the likes of which we saw against Iowa, Penn State and Michigan. If the staff can get a similar amount of effort out of this line as it did in Happy Valley, things will go a lot more smoothly for Terrelle Pryor and Ohio State's incidental passing game.

The defensive backfield is not the strength of this unit, but there are some very solid players: Talmadge Jackson III leads the team in interceptions with four, while T.J. Ward and Javes Lewis patrol the deep portions of the field.  As a unit, the Oregon secondary has held 7 of their 12 opponents under 200 yards passing, thought it's highly unlikely that Ohio State will make a serious effort in getting to that number unless the game gets out of hand early. The match-ups here are iffy; DeVier Posey can make many corners look bad, but frequently when he does, Pryor overshoots him anyway. Even so, I wouldn't start banking on Posey burning Jackson - a more than adequate cover corner - any time soon. I like the prospect of Dane Sanzenbacher against Oregon's other corner - either Anthony Gildon or Cliff Harris, both underclassmen who have been consistent, but not spectacular - but yet again, it's an issue of Pryor actually hitting the open man.

However, If Ohio State is dropping back enough to get Rowe, Bair and Pleasant heavily involved in the backfield, chances are that the Buckeyes never had a chance in the first place, as the ground game will have to have already been limited. The Ohio State passing game is a completely secondary aspect of the offense, more of a "change-up" for Jim Tressel than a separate entity.

Thus, everyone and their mother knows what Ohio State's offensive gameplan against Oregon is going to be: pound the rock, drain the clock, and keep the Duck offense off the field (and the Buckeye defense well-rested). Other teams have tried it, and Ohio State will be hoping that its defense can contain (meaning "slow down", not "shut down") the Oregon offense long enough to keep this strategy viable.There will be either misdirection or read-option at least once every other drive, and there will be a deep ball here or there to test the Duck secondary. If Pryor can connect on at least one of these, and if the line is blocking like it did against the Lions, the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines, the Buckeyes will probably be in fairly good shape heading into the game's final minutes.