As this week has progressed, I've found myself becoming slightly more and more optimistic about tomorrow night's title-elimination tussle in State College. While I'm going to stop short of predicting a Buckeye triumph as you'll see, even a meager statistical analysis bears out surprisingly well for the Buckeyes. There are, as usual, negative and positive dynamics for the Buckeyes heading into this game, but I think you'll be surprised just how many positives can be gleaned from  the data.

Reasons for Despair

- Penn State's front seven might be the best Ohio State will play in the regular season. The Nittany Lions have held five of nine opponents under 100 yards rushing as a team. They lead the league in sacks with 32 - 3.5 a game - and tackles for loss with 79 (!), 16 more than runner up Purdue.

- Penn State is 4th in the conference in turnover margin (+5), having forced 10 picks and recovered 7 fumbles (for you non-math majors out there, they have committed 12 turnovers themselves).

- The Nittany Lions leads the league in offense, and average a full half-yard more per play than the next team

- The Nits are also rather good at protecting the passer, having given up only 10 sacks on the year. Ohio State, in comparison, has given up 15 (though 6 came against Purdue)

Reasons for Hope

- The quality of Penn State's front is... debatable. The Lions have played just two top-40 rushing offenses, and the results were fairly good - Illinois toted the rock 35 times for 130 yards, while Michigan needed 40 carries to get 110. However, two bottom-30 rushing offenses, Iowa and Northwestern, piled up over 100 yards on the Lions, and Iowa in particular averaged 4.4 YPC. The front seven is by no stretch of the imagination a weakness, but it is far from impermeable. Those five opponents Penn State held under 100? Akron, Temple, Syracuse, Eastern Illinois, and Minnesota. Temple is the country's 47th best rushing offense, Eastern Illinois is an FCS squad, and every other team is 99th or below statistically. Ohio State will - at 29th in the country -  be far and away the best rushing attack Penn State has faced.

Now, let's try and hold Ohio State to the same standard: the Buckeyes have played four rushing offenses in the top 40, and of these teams, only Navy has rushed for more than 118 yards. At 4.23 YPC, the Midshipmen also lay claim to the best YPC any Ohio State opponent has had thus far this year. Since the USC game, Ohio State has surrendered one run of more than 9 yards by a running back.

- The Penn State secondary is also a tad questionable. Not having played any passing attack ranked higher than 45th in the country, the Lions have accrued some respectable stats: 3 TDs allowed through the air all year, 10 picks, and a 52 percent opponent completion percentage. Now, it's just as questionable whether or not Ohio State can actually make them pay for all this, and I'm inclined to think that they can't, but it is a potential soft spot. For the record, true freshman Terrelle Pryor went 16/25 for 226 yards against a similarly-questionable Nittany secondary last year, and his only interception game on a game-ending Hail Mary. If he's able to recreate such a performance, minus the turnover, Ohio State'll be in good shape.

- The initial catalyst for this analysis was a rather basic assumption that was really the only thing giving me much hope for this game: Ohio State's defense is a better unit than it was last year, especially up front, while Penn State's offense is not the juggernaut it was heading into Columbus. I'll go into greater depth on the Buckeye defense later, but for the record, here's the rank in total D of each FCS team Penn State has played:

Akron: 54th

Syracuse: 64th

Temple: 22nd

Iowa: 19th

Illinois: 96th

Minnesota: 92nd-T

Michigan: 81st

Northwestern: 50th

Now, in the interest of fairness, let's do the same for Ohio State:

Navy: 27th

USC: 36th

Toledo: 107th

Illinois: 96th

Indiana: 92nd-T

Wisconsin: 21st

Purdue: 64th

Minnesota: 92nd-T

NMSU: 89th

What can we glean from this? First, that neither offense has played a truly elite defense yet, and thus comparisons from the first 9 games are largely bunk when attempting to determine how each will fare against the other's defense. Second, when up against defenses even approaching elite status, the results aren't pretty. Yes, Ohio State did okay against Navy in racking up 29 points, and yes, Penn State did alright against Temple in totaling 31, but Ohio State floundered offensively against Wisconsin (one offensive touchdown) and Penn State did much the same against Iowa. Ohio State also has the Purdue albatross hanging from its neck, and Penn State's offense was not particularly thrilling for a Charmin-soft set of defenses to open the season (though, admittedly, none of them approached the Purdue disaster). I feel safe in saying that there is no recipe for success here; both offenses are going to take the field and just hope that they don't screw up enough to put their defense in bad situations. There is nothing to really indicate that this won't be the case.

Well, that was oodles of fun, but what does it all mean?

Well, nothing particularly earthshattering. I took this away from it: Penn State's defense has not seen a rushing attack as good as Ohio State's, which has put up surprisingly good statistics given that no number one tailback has emerged. Ohio State has in fact seen rushing offenses roughly as, if not more, productive than Penn State's, and has done a pretty good job against each. Passing games are irrelevant because Daryll Clark chokes in big games and TP passes like old people screw: slow and sloppy. Since neither team has seen a defense a fraction as good as the other's, we can simply use last year's game as a template, and you know what that means: punting! And not just of the arm variety either! I feel Ohio State will win the punting battle by punting eleventy billion times to Penn State's eleventy million.  Score-wise? Eh, I guess it's prediction time:

Five predictions that will make me look foolish come Monday:

- Both teams combine for 5+ turnovers

- Each score results from a shortened field, either from a turnover or a good kick return (Penn State is 75th in the nation in kick coverage, while the Buckeyes are 19th in kickoff return yardage)

- Both quarterbacks have their moments as scramblers, and one or two as passers, but neither fanbase walks away from the game certain they have a legend on their hands

-  Ohio State barely squeaks by the 100 yard rushing mark thanks to an early 20+ yard by Pryor, followed by a series of variations on the "ramming Saine/Herron/Hall up Brewster's ass" theme that result in 3-4 yard gains on occasion. Neither team goes over 200 yards passing (Penn State because of Ohio State's defense, Ohio State because laws of science have decreed so).

- Final Score: Penn State 16, Ohio State 10