Pack up your troubles

I remain strangely calm about tomorrow's game. Prior to Penn State, I had the same problem:

Anyone else feel eerily calm?

I feel like no outcome today would surprise me. Either team big, either team in a close, low-scoring game. I just don’t quite know what to make of today, even after all that statistical crap I trotted out on Friday.

But this time around, I have a tough time seeing either team winning big. This is paradoxical, as the narrative heading into the game is virtually identical: two offenses that could be much, much better, squaring off against one of the nation's  top defenses. Nonetheless, my gut feeling is that an extraordinary amount of breaks have to go to one team to produce any sort of lopsided score; these teams are roughly as even as they come.

I know that everyone has gotten cocky in the wake of the Stanzi injury and the subsequent Hawkeye loss to Northwestern, and I've warned against such hubris. Nevertheless, it's difficult to see Ohio State losing this game without something resembling a Purdue-style meltdown. Iowa's defense is certainly capable of producing a similar result: they're tied for the national lead in interceptions, and on four separate occasions have picked the opposing QB off three or more times in one game.

Could the horror in West Lafayette be replicated? Yes, but it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Ohio State mysteriously abandons the run, as it did against the Boilers. Iowa has a good front seven, but so did Penn State. Ohio State was able to get just enough of a rush attack going to keep the offensive focus off of Pryor, and it'll have to do the exact same thing if it wants to win tomorrow. If it doesn't, and the offensive focus shifts entirely to Pryor, bad, bad things will happen.

Defensively, it certainly looks like there isn't much to worry about. Iowa has the country's 94th-ranked rush attack, and has been held under 100 yards rushing by Michigan (80th in rush D), Wisconsin (19th), Northern Iowa (NR), and Northwestern (33rd). They have averaged over 4 YPC only twice - against Penn State and Iowa State. It's safe to say that Iowa will have to win this game through the air, and they'll be trying to do it with James Vandenberg, not Ricky Stanzi. It... probably won't end pretty.

There isn't much more to say that hasn't already been said 1000 times over the course of this week, so let's move on to the predictions:

Five predictions to make me look foolish come Monday:

- The Hawkeyes do move the ball on offense

- Ohio State totals over 200 yards on the ground for the fourth straight week

- Vandenberg throws just one interception, and completes just under 50 percent of his passes. Pryor also throws a pick, and no touchdowns.

- Ohio State gets one defensive touchdown

- Final Score: Ohio State 20, Iowa 10