StoopsMyAss over at BHGP recently did an excellent piece comparing the offenses of Ohio State and Iowa. The gist: both offenses may look bad, but Iowa's offense has come away looking slightly better against defenses whose average rank is a full 15 spots above the average rank of defenses Ohio State has faced. It's a completely fair assessment, and rather straightforward.

I figured I'd write a companion piece, since BHGP was just bitching (and rightfully so) yesterday that no one really seems to be willing to talk about the actual game. So, all credit for the overall layout of this post goes out to SMA. Now, let's take a look at the proverbial strengths of both teams - the defenses - and see how they stack up using a similar metric.

When SMA ranked the defenses, he apparently did so using this set of standards:

"Good": National Top 40

"Bad" : 41st-90th nationally

"Awful": Below 90th, or not ranked

While I don't necessarily agree with the terminology, I'll use it anyway to keep this fairly compatible with his post.

Ohio State has played the following good offenses: USC (40th), Toledo (18th),

Ohio State has played the following bad offenses: Penn State (41st), Navy (77th), Illinois (66th), Indiana (76th), Purdue (58th), Wisconsin (45th),

Ohio State has played the following awful offenses: New Mexico State (120th), Minnesota (106th)

The average rankings of those offensive units is 64.7.

Now let's look at the teams that SMA would deem "good" offensively, one is USC, the other is admittedly a MACrifice:

USC: 118 rushing yards allowed, 195 passing yards allowed, on 72 plays

Toledo: 13 yards rushing allowed, 197  passing yards allowed, on 58 plays

Against the two best offenses the Buckeyes have faced all year, the defense surrendered on average : 196 yards through the air, and 104 yards on the ground

Now, I want to take this a step further: against "bad offenses", Ohio State has surrendered 93.3 yards on the ground, and 185 passing. This is inclusive of the debacle against Purdue and Wisconsin's day of long, grinding, surprisingly effective drives, both of which Iowa will attempt to recreate this week. 

Now, let's take a look at the Iowa defense, using the same metric as was applied to Ohio State:

Iowa has played the following good offenses: Arizona (13th), Michigan State (28th)

Iowa has played the following bad offenses: Iowa State (69th), Penn State (41st),  Michigan (44th), Wisconsin (45th), Indiana (76th), Northwestern 60th

Iowa has played the following awful offenses: Arkansas State (94th), Northern Iowa (NR)

The average rank of the offenses Iowa has faced is 52.1.

Against "good" offenses, Iowa's defense gave up an average of 186.5 yards through the air, and 95 on the ground. These numbers are roughly ten yards better than Ohio State's against "good" offensive teams, and they come against two attacks that are statistically more potent on average than the ones Ohio State played.

But let's move onto the "bad" offensive comparison for the Hawkeyes, where things are a bit more nuanced: against those six teams, Iowa gave up an average of 130 yards on the ground, to go with 152.3 through the air. That still averages out roughly on par with Ohio State's numbers against "bad" teams, in terms of total yards allowed: 284.3 to Ohio State's 278.3. That, however, comes with a 40-yard uptick in rushing yards allowed over the aforementioned "good" teams (one of which - MSU - features an anemic 71st-ranked rushing attack). Fortunately for us, running the ball is our forté, and Iowa is at least a tad susceptible on the ground.

A couple of other notes: I think Iowa's game against Arkansas State - they surrendered 296 yards of total offense to the country's 94th-best offensive attack - was a bit of an aberration defensively. I think it's analogous to Ohio State's game against Minnesota, in which the Buckeyes surrendered 286 yards to the country's 104th-best. That said, the end results were vastly different: Iowa beat ASU 24-21, while Ohio State trumped Minnesota 38-7.

So what does it all mean?

I took away from it this: Iowa's defense is probably better than even "14th in total defense" would indicate, and simply cannot be faulted for the Northwestern game. Regardless, after having considered all the mitigating factors, I think it's a stretch to issue any declarative statements about them actually being better than Ohio State, which, to my knowledge, no one has actually done yet. They have faced a better set of offenses, and it wouldn't be a stretch to infer that their total D ranking has suffered as a result.

This is why I'm so hesitant to predict any sort of blowout. I know Iowa is starting the guy from Varsity Blues, and he was horrible against a terrible Northwestern defense, but that doesn't mean Ohio State will win going away. It has to score points, and them don't come easy against the Hawkeyes.  You want a ray of hope? Statistically, Penn State's defense is still better than Iowa's, and Ohio State was just fine cobbling together a passing game and mowing down the PSU front with the running game. Where Iowa is strong - at DE - is a concern, but if this line can limit Jared Odrick and Jack Crawford, I think it'll do alright against Adrian Clayborn and Karl Klug. In the end, these teams are far more even than most on our side are willing to admit. Yes, maybe Iowa will score just one offensive touchdown, and perhaps their quarterback will throw three picks and no touchdowns. How can we be so sure that that negates the possibility of a victory, when the Hawks won in Happy Valley with that exact same stat line?