I don't think I have to do a lot of convincing when I say that tomorrow should be a dogfight. "Throw out the records" is one of the most annoying clichés in sports, but when it's Ohio State and Wisconsin, it's actually appropriate more often than not. Last year, a Badger team that battled OSU to the final gun ended up beating two teams that finished with a winning record all year and closed the season by getting taken to the wire by Cal Poly. OSU finished with yet another 10 win season. In 2003, the defending national champion Buckeyes fell in Madison to a Badger team that would go on to lose five games in the regular season. There's more to it than that, but suffice to say Wisconsin has been a consistent thorn in the Buckeyes' side since the 80's. It doesn't seem to matter how good Wisconsin actually is; they play a very similar style of football to Ohio State, and the man-in-the-mirror familiarity hasn't led to either team developing a consistent advantage. In fact, it's led to some of the most interesting games the conference has had in the last ten years. 2003 was a heartbreaker, but there's no denying it was a classic. 2008 was scary, and probably more a product of a solid Buckeye squad underperforming, but it was also one for the ages. Even in 2007, the Badgers led going into the fourth quarter before Beanie Wells said "hey everyone, I'm gonna go ballistic. Y'all just watch."

So we basically know what the formula will be for Saturday. The first half will be an ugly exchange of body blows. There will be something like 37 possible Big Ten suspension-worthy hits, and 28 of them will come from Jay Valai. As much as Penn State wants us to hate them, it seems to me there's twice as much bad blood between the Buckeyes and the Badgers. It stems partially both teams exchanging (woefully stupid) field logo stomps earlier in the decade, as well as the aforementioned 2003 game.

The match-up of the game will be the eternal question: which wins, an unstoppable force or an immovable object? The Badgers are averaging 233 rush yards/game. Since the Navy game, Ohio State has surrendered 231 yards on the ground total. But remember:

One week later, the Badgers ripped Minnesota for 295 yards on the ground, 184 of which came from potential Buckeye nightmare John Clay. Now, of course, there's the chicken and egg question here, is Minnesota really that bad of a rush D or did Wisconsin mow them down like they will any and all comers? Prior to the Wisconsin game, Minnesota had surrendered 578 yards on 173 carries for 3.3 yards against the likes of Air Force, Syracuse, Cal and Northwestern. Cal has Jahvid Best, and Air Force is the country's best rushing offense, so I would definitely say that 3.3 YPC is actually a bit more-than-respectable.

While Minnesota's defense isn't a fraction of the caliber of Ohio State's, it did compile a respectable rush D resumé against solid attacks from Cal and Air Force. It proceeded to get shredded by UW just last week. This makes me cautious, hesitant to pull any triggers for fear of blowing my feet off. John Clay is terrifying, and I think he sprung fully formed from Barry Alvarez' noggin. He's a classic Wisconsin 'back: 248 pounds, impossibly runs a 4.5, and packs a mean SAOJ*. Let's hope that arm tackling we saw on Indiana's one meaningful TD drive is gone, because John Clay will see it, and laugh all the way to the end zone.

Ohio State's going to have to come up with a defensive effort similar to what we saw against USC to hope to contain the UW rushing game, and that might mean putting Chimdi Chekwa and Devon Torrence/Andre Amos on the proverbial island and trusting them to cover the Badgers' dangerous receivers.  This is a risky proposition; Chex and the boys were solid against very large, if not all that talented Toledo wideouts, and exceeded all my expectations against USC's dangerous set of wideouts, but they struggled against Indiana's Tandon Doss for a fairly prolonged period. They're solid, but I'm not sure they've seen a set of wideouts this talented at the top of the depth chart.

Early on in this game, I'll be keeping an eye on two Badgers in particular: Obviously, John Clay will be the focus of everyone's attention any time he gets the ball, and if he's getting yards in chunks, this'll be just as close as I've anticipated. It'll start getting scary if the other guy, O'Brien Schofield, is camped out in the Buckeye backfield, giving Mike Adams wedgies and Terrelle Pryor happy. Limiting just one of these guys should keep the Buckeyes well on their way to a solid, if close victory and and an enviable start to the Big Ten season.

*Stiff Arm Of Justice, natch

Five predictions that will make me look foolish come Monday :

- Terrelle Pryor accounts for 300 yards of offense

- Saine and Herron combine for just 130 yards rushing

- Schofield gets at least two sacks, one on either Buckeye tackle

- Wisconsin breaks their trend of scoring 17 points on the Buckeyes by scoring .... 16

- Final Score: Ohio State 23, Wisconsin 16