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So just how good is Wisconsin's offense?

The most surprising thing about this year's edition of the Wisconsin Badgers, which will suit up against Ohio State in the Horseshoe on Saturday, is its offense. Statistically, ti's a behemoth; one we'd expect more out of Penn State or a properly-combobulated (now a word) Illinois team. The Badgers are second in the conference in total offense, and, to almost everyone's surprise, they're sporting a 50/50 split: of 2,166 yards of total offense, 1,086 are rushing, and 1,080 are passing. This is because Scott Tolzien has emerged as a largely competent quarterback at a school that usually doesn't boast much more than a hand-off machine under center. The newcomer has passed 9 touchdowns to just 3 picks in his first few starts, and has made the rest of the Big Ten take notice: you have to worry about the Wisconsin air attack these days, too. Oh, and that ground attack? Not only do the Badgers lead the conference in rushing by a relatively wide margin of almost 100 yards, they've already scored 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. That's impressive for a team that struggled on the ground more than it's used to last year.

First, a content warning: I am not intending to demean the Badgers' accomplishments in any way. They're undefeated, which is more than 9 of their fellow conference members can say, and even with their relatively lackluster OOC slate so far (consisting of Fresno State, Northern Illinois and Wofford), they've found a way to win. To knock on them for close games against mighty mites would be to ignore my very own team's knack for playing down to OOC patsies. That being said, I've gone on record as saying the Badgers feel like the least impressive 5-0 squad in the country, and I just can't shake that feeling. Hopefully, I won't be forced to this Saturday.

Star-divide

The numbers above are enough to make a grown man whimper, but they bear closer inspection. Against exactly what defenses has Wisconsin accrued these enviable figures? Well, we know they played FCS Wofford, and that that game should probably be discounted because Wofford. Other than that...

Opponent Rush D (FBS rank)
Pass D Total D
Northern Illinois 60th 64th 53rd
Fresno 74th 74th 74th
Michigan State 22nd 93rd (!) 49th
Minnesota 96th (!) 50th 80th

 

The notion that the Badgers have yet to play anyone with a defensive pulse is not without merit. Both Northern Illinois and Fresno State are remarkably balanced when it comes to defensive suck, but defensive ineptitude are to be expected from  MAC- and WAC-rifices. It's the Big Ten defenses that caught my eye. Both of them have one glaring weakness; one can't stop the run, and the other's secondary is constantly flambé.  Smartly, Wisconsin exploited both deficiencies, with excellent results: against MSU, Tolzien tossed for four touchdowns, no picks, and 243 yards. One week later, the Badgers ripped Minnesota for 295 yards on the ground, 184 of which came from potential Buckeye nightmare John Clay. Now, of course, there's the chicken and egg question here, is Minnesota really that bad of a rush D or did Wisconsin mow them down like they will any and all comers?

Prior to the Wisconsin game, Minnesota had surrendered 578 yards on 173 carries for 3.3 yards against the likes of Air Force, Syracuse, Cal and Northwestern. Cal has Jahvid Best, and Air Force is the country's best rushing offense, so I would definitely say that 3.3 YPC is actually a bit more-than-respectable. Michigan State, on the other hand, hadn't held an FBS opponent under 300 yards passing until it finally (and somewhat misleadingly) held the Badgers to "just" 243. Say what you will about sample size, I'm willing to assume that this Badger rushing game is probably better than it has been the past few years. The closest it has come to struggling was when it averaged 3.8 YPC and one touchdown against Michigan State, and that's a pretty good "bad" game. I'm not shocked by this; I thought John Clay was better than PJ Hill last year and he seems to be proving me right. The passing attack, on the other hand, has seen just one top-50 secondary and I expect it to struggle against an Ohio State secondary that hasn't given up more than 200 yards passing in meaningful minutes yet this year.

And that is tough titties for them, because Ohio State is giving up an average of 2.66 YPC on the year, and without the increasingly-fluky-looking Navy game, it'd be 2.04. The Badgers absolutely need the passing attack to do work, if only to give the running game some breathing room against the Buckeye front seven. Now, Clay's a serious natural talent, so don't be too shocked if he suddenly pops off for 150. This could very easily be a much closer game than people are anticipating. Even with the recent changes to the Ohio State offensive system (I still hesitate to call it an "attack"), Jim Tressel has always and will always prize winning TOP and shortening the game, and Bret Bielema will - if he knows what's good for him - follow in the footsteps of his mentor Barry Alvarez and attempt to do the same. If Wisconsin is seriously better on offense than last year and about the same, if not slightly improved on defense, why would another 20-17ish nailbiter be so out of the question?

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Good stuff...

as always. I think it could be a very close game but I wonder if Tolzien is in for “Drew Tate”esque moment of frustration as our Dfront gets to him. I have my doubts about holding Clay under 100 but if we can keep him to right around 2.75 ypc without putting 8 in the box, I think the Coleman crew will be able to snuff out the passing game even to the tune of a few picks. As for our O v UW-D, TP has been finding those seems in the option plays and I think the PA option will pay the largest dividends in the passing game. Although, if you have read some of the UW boards, Fresno has better WR’s than us so we shall see. I just hope we see more of this … any way we can get it.

by Onestatewest on Oct 8, 2009 9:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Good article.

This should be a tough game. I’m thinking we put another guy (probably Coleman) in the box and let Chikwa and Torrence (and Amos) do their thing.

by Ryan Kelsey on Oct 8, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions  

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