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Blogpoll Ballot: Week 5

RankTeamDelta
1 Florida 1
2 Alabama 1
3 Texas
4 Southern Cal
5 Boise State
6 Virginia Tech
7 LSU
8 Ohio State
9 TCU 3
10 Cincinnati 3
11 Miami (Florida) 4
12 Iowa 2
13 Penn State 3
14 Oregon 5
15 Oklahoma State 1
16 Auburn 8
17 Kansas
18 Oklahoma 9
19 Brigham Young 2
20 Mississippi 3
21 Nebraska 3
22 South Florida
23 Missouri
24 Georgia Tech 1
25 Wisconsin
Last week's ballot

 

Dropped Out: Houston (#11), Georgia (#20), Michigan (#22), California (#23).

Bullets?

Bullets!

  • Another week of upsets brings another week of top-10 shuffling. Bama's defense showed some vulnerability against a previously-moribund Kentucky offense, and the Tide offense (mostly) underwhelmed in a 38-20 win over Kentucky in Lexington. Thus, I drop them a spot, purely from the eyeball test. I'm going to go out on the mother of all limbs here - don't come out, it's shaky! - and say that we won't know how good Bama is until it's playing Florida in the SEC championship game.
  • The Cincinnati lovefest is grating, but I'll move them into the top ten for lack of a better alternative.
  • Iowa would have made it to the cusp of top-10 if hadn't slept-walked (sleepwalked?) through four quarters at home against an OOC patsy (wait, what? Hypocrisy? Not at all!). The Hawkeyes are guaranteed a spot in the top ten if they make quick work of Michigan, which they should, but probably won't.
  • Didn't I say USC would be just fine, thank you?
  • So Oklahoma, you're losing in medium games too now? Backlash from the national press that would assuredly come if, say,  tOSU had fallen in Miami? Non-existent.
  •  3-8 remains unchanged, but it's looking more and more like the Tigers are in for a rude home awakening against the Gators this coming week, which will move Ohio State that much closer to the top 5.
  • I have next-to-no idea what to make of Miami. They were just barely good enough to beat 2-3 Florida State, they got routed in Blacksburg, and were good enough top an Okie squad that, previously, looked like it hadn't missed a beat with Sam Bradford on the sidelines. I still think they're far too wonky of a team to merit a top-10 ranking, but they've got get some love for navigating what had looked like a brutal opening stretch.
  • How is Auburn this good? 5-0, with a respectable OOC opponent scalp in West Virginia? Their offense hasn't been held under 26 points all season.
  • Someone give Jevan Snead his talent back.
  • I thought USF was on a decided downward trend after the breakout 2007 season, but they're undefeated, and they intercepted Greg Paulus 5 times in a 34-20 win over Syracuse.
  • Penn State finally got its rushing attack going, and it look genuinely scary: going over 300 yards for the first time all season, with both Stephfon Green and Evan Royster topping 100 with ease.
  • Hello, Wisconsin! You're here because you're one of two Big Ten unbeatens, even if you've yet to beat an FBS opponent by more than 8 points.
  • 0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments |

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    More from We Will Always Have Tempe

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    Comments

    Display:

    Ok, Week 5 has come and gone, and the “good teams” are finally able to prove they are good (relative to preseason) and some of the frauds have shown themselves as well (Cal, Ok St).

    Anyways, as an alternative to Sam’s rankings (I don’t have any quibble with them actually), my system is almost without bias. In my formula, teams are given credit for wins (obviously), but they also get credit for going on the road, and not playing the dregs of FBS/FCS.

    All conferences are given a factor rating (based on winning percentage and OOC schedule). So playng a Florida is much better than playing a Troy (and playing either of those on the road also benefits greatly).

    This ranking is not stagnant, it will change from week to week, based on who they play, and based on the performance of the teams they have already played. For example, Boise St was fairly high in the system until this week when they played UC Davis (FCS). Anything positive from their ranking will take a hit with each loss Oregon accumulates as well.

    The only bias I place into the system is the rankings of the teams in each conference. I will adjust for similar records based on head-to-head and OOC schedules. Rarely will I move a 2-2 team ahead of 3-2, but it can happen, especially if the 3-2 team has 2 wins vs FCS schools.

    Note: For teams that have played one fewer game, I add a win to their resume (only for above .500 teams), not assuming that they will win the game, but in order to rank teams relative to the number of losses they have accumulated so far (i.e 5-0 = 4-0 for this purpose), but they team with the extra game has the benefit or subtraction of the extra game played, depending on who that team is.

    Anyways, here is the Top 25 and Bottom 20:

    1. VA Tech 5.01
    2. LSU 4.92
    3. Texas 4.88
    4. Alabama 4.77
    5. Miami FL 4.59
    6. Auburn 4.47
    7. Iowa 4.43
    8. Florida 4.28
    9. Oregon 4.20
    10. Ohio St 4.12
    11. USC 4.04
    12. Stanford 4.01
    13. Notre Dame 3.90
    14. Wisconsin 3.88
    14. TCU 3.88
    16. Arizona 3.87
    17. UCLA 3.85
    18. Washington 3.74
    19. Kansas 3.70
    20. Idaho 3.66
    21. Nebraska 3.61
    22. Georgia 3.59
    22. BYU 3.59
    22. Boise St 3.59
    25. GA Tech 3.53

    Next 5: Michigan, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Missouri, Penn St

    Bottom 20

    101. Western Michigan 1.11
    102. Colorado 1.10
    103. San Jose St 1.09
    104. Duke 1.03
    105. Fresno St 0.93
    106. Akron 0.80
    107. UNLV 0.78
    108. Utah St 0.77
    109. Memphis 0.64
    110. Virginia 0.63
    111. Army 0.55
    112. FIU 0.49
    113. Louisville 0.47
    114. FAU 0.45
    115. Miami OH 0.27
    116. East Michigan -0.24
    117. Rice -0.32
    118. Western Kentucky -0.44
    119. New Mexico -0.60
    120. Ball St -0.70

    by talonk on Oct 5, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    Pac-10 is extremely well represented in your top-25

    Is there a mathematical explanation for that?

    www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com

    by Sam @ WWAHT on Oct 5, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    It basically is a factor that they actually play road games OOC and have fewer FCS games on the schedule. As the conference schedules keep ading to the totals, the other conferences will slowly move up.

    by talonk on Oct 6, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    Call me crazy

    But I don’t think Florida’s as good as they were last year. Maybe it’s the lack of a go-to reciever… maybe it’s a little complacency. But I think they go down to LSU, and then an unexpected loss along the way, too.

    But I can’t argue with your poll. Solid.

    by ericjosephson on Oct 5, 2009 10:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    I can see where you're coming from, and it's probably true

    I was expecting the Gators to just plug a guy in as a reasonable facsimile of Percy Harvin, but that’s not happening. Demps and Rainey are dangerous in their own right, but with the loss of Andre Debose, I expected someone (Deonte Thompson?) to step up and fill a good bit of the hole left behind by Harvin. Clearly, that hasn’t happened.

    That being said, I’m not sure LSU is as good as their ranking. Should be a very interesting game, as the loss of Tebow might takes the Gators down to LSU’s level, provided that John Brantley is still serviceable.

    www.wewillalwayshavetempe.com

    by Sam @ WWAHT on Oct 6, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    What unfortunate is that in the AP and USA Today polls, even if LSU losses they’ll still be ahead of us. But, as a Buckeye fan, I’ve found it’s best not to care about those polls until much later in the season.

    If there ever was a season to show how terrible their voting is however, 2009 is it.

    by Simmsinns on Oct 6, 2009 8:50 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

    This isn’t about being a homer either. Ranking ND purely based on their schedule, ranking Houston for beating Ok. St., ranking Cal because of 1 player… the list could go on.

    Where are they now?

    They don’t rank them based on which they think are the best, they rank them to sell magazines, get website views, and hype otherwise boring blowout games.

    by Simmsinns on Oct 6, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

    I’m with you on most of this. But I don’t even care who they think is best or who would do what in some hypothetical matchup.

    That’s why I love what Doug Lesmerises is doing. The only thing that matters is the games played. Look at the resume of who each team has played and beat- this year- and be done with it. The rankings should be a reflection of what has happened in College Football this year, not projections on what they think will happen.

    So while I agree with you that ND had no place in the polls just because people thought they could have a good record against an easy schedule- Houston absolutely deserved to be in the top 25- if not the top 5- after beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Who had a more impressive start to the season? Drop them out of the polls if you want after losing to a bad UTEP team, but don’t rank Florida ahead of them just because you think eventually Houston will lose or that Florida would beat them in some hypothetical head to head matchup.

    by Ryan Kelsey on Oct 6, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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