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Don't Lose Touch

Warning: Hide the chilluns. Profanity throughout.

In the wake of the stunning loss to Purdue, Buckeye fans have returned to doing what we do best: losing our shit. This is a hallowed pastime in "Buckeye Nation", and I will freely admit that I am not always entirely innocent of it. It's a ritual that follows every loss. Setting aside the usual "FIRE JIM TRESSEL" calls and recognizing them for the hopeless fairweather idiocy that they are, there are still plenty other mystifying claims being thrown around by Buckeye fans who probably should have better things to do. I'm targeting one here in particular today: the misbegotten conception that because Terrelle Pryor is already a "bust" because he isn't progressing like we thought he would, and may even be regressing. It's easy to understand why Buckeye fans are so quick to toss out the label; we've had stud quarterbacks as recently as 2004 who came in with all-world hype, only to flop on the grandest of scales, costing the team games, recruits and time. Justin Zwick never panned out. Neither did Steve Bellisari or Austin Moherman. To say that Ohio State has a troubled history with highly-touted QBs would be telling half the story. My advice: don't lose touch with anything resembling reality faith in the guy because he's going through a rough patch. Even with our program's checkered history with all-world QBs, all talk at present of Pryor being a bust is little more than than internet OUTRAGE-fueled panic, and should not be taken seriously.

Star-divide

Fatalism has swept in to some parts of the fanbase and a surprising amount of people are resigned to the belief that Pryor is yet another in a long line of signal callers who, like Zwick and Bellisari before him, is cursed to underperform until he's benched for what might be a surprising savior. After all, Zwick had Troy Smith and Bellisari had "Krazy Legs"/"Special K" Craig Krenzel. I personally don't have a clue whether or not Bauserman will be that guy for Terrelle, but given the way the line is pass-blocking and his relative lack of quicks, I have to conclude that benching Pryor in favor of Bauserman for anything more than a series here or there (i.e. in the darkest depths of the Purdue game, when Terrelle could no longer distinguish black from white in the most literal sense) would be an incredibly apefuckingly stupid move.

Despite these considerations, there is a certain red-faced, spit-flecked segment of the fanbase that is so adamant about Pryor being a bust that it has lost all perspective; if it had any in the first place. I'm here to provide it. It's time to stop panicking, and reassess the situation. When Terrelle Pryor came to Ohio State, the label that stuck was "The Next Vince Young." Let's compare the two as passers first.

Vince Young CMP/ATT (%) YPA TD/INT
Freshman 84/143 (54.9% 8.08 6/7
Sophomore 148/250 (59.2%) 7.4 12/11

As you can see, from his freshman to his sophomore year, VY added 5 percentage points to his completion percentage, shaved .6 yards off his yards/attempt, and only made marginal improvments in his TD-INT ratio. Let's take a look at Pryor.

Terrelle Pryor CMP/ATT (%) YPA TD/INT
Freshman 100/165 (60.6%) 7.9 YPA 12/4
Sophomore 88/158 (55.7%) 7.4 YPA 10/8

A couple notes about playing time: Vince Young shared time in 2003 (his freshman season) with Chance Mock, a more traditional pocket-passer who was supposed to be a better downfield passer than the young scrambler. Vince gradually took on more and more playing time until Mock was benched altogether midway through Vince's redshirt-freshman year (during a 65-13 loss to rival Oklahoma; yes, Buckeye fans, it can get much fucking worse... darkest, dawn etc.).

It's safe to say that Vince Young was not wowing people with his arm as a sophomore. While there was no clear regression for VY as there was for Pryor, TP started out worlds better statistically, and thus this regression is a little more jarring than it would have been for VY, who turned a negative TD/INT ratio to a positive in his second season as a starter, but barely. Outside of those ratios, the numbers are essentially a push. This is even more surprising when you consider that Vince Young was playing on what was a far better team in 2004 Texas than Pryor is with 2009 Ohio State. It's tough to admit, but it's true: Young shared time in the backfield with a dominant Cedric Benson and got more than a little help from a solid defense led by Derrick Johnson. 2004 Texas finished with an 11-1 record and a Rose Bowl spot. 2009 Ohio State will not. I'd be willing to wager that the situation Pryor found himself in during the 2008 season is actually more comparable to Young's 2004 season, with (healthy) Beanie being his Ced Benson and a stout defense making sure things don't get out of hand, and, fortunately for us, Pryor's numbers showed it.

So it's undoubtedly reassuring that Vince's passing numbers are comparable to Pryor's, and that VY had even undergone with a redshirt year in his first year at Texas, giving him an advantage over Terrelle. Even with three years in the system at the end of 2004, the future national champion was still barely managing a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. So why the difference in perception? The rushing numbers don't seem to favor VY too much, taken at face value: Vince Young accounted for 1079 yards on the ground his sophomore season; Pryor is on pace for roughly 681 this year. "But that's 400 yards!" you say, and you're correct, but less so when you take sacks into account:

- In 2004, Vince was sacked 11 times for 85 yards

- Pryor is on pace for 28 sacks for 234 yards in 2009.

Taking away those hypothetical sacks, Pryor could have accounted for over 900 yards rushing this season, which - again, on its face - is statistically close to Young's 2004 production, even when you add in the yards Young lost to sacks. But that still leaves a roughly 200-yard or so disparity between these hypothetical numbers. That can't be all that separates Terrelle from Vince, can it? Ah, here it is, the truly big difference between the two: Young was by far a more effective runner when given the opportunity (emphasis mine):

Year Passing Rushing
Comp Att Yards TDs Int Att Yds Avg TD
2003 84 143 1,155 6 7 135 998 7.4 11
2004 148 250 1,849 12 11 167 1,079 6.5 14

Compare this to Pryor, who's averaging roughly 4.4. yards/carry in his career at Ohio State, on what will probably be a roughly similar amount of carries through his first two years. That's a full 3 yards less per carry than redshirt-freshman Vince Young. Young looked better as a quarterback because he took full advantage of any and every opportunity to run. Pryor, on the other hand, hesitates when the opportunity comes and seemingly avoids contact at all costs; even if it means coming up short of a first down. To me, this is the biggest nagging issue Pryor has right now; if he were a more decisive, productive runner on the level of VY, we wouldn't be quite so worried about his lackluster passing numbers.

Despite Pryor's struggles (relative to Young) toting the rock, there's still not enough data here to assume Pryor will be a bust, because a) he's a freaking sophomore, people and b) if we do our due diligence, we realize that the gap between the situation Vince Young found himself in at Texas and the one Terrelle finds himself in now at Ohio State is enormous, and even when we take that into account, Pryor's passing numbers hold up surprisingly well with the legendary Longhorn's, despite being in the Ohio State "system" for a year less than the Heisman runner-up had been in Texas'. Now, this isn't to say Terrelle's going to be '05 Vince Young next year (he won't), nor is it to say that he'll ever match that level of production (even Troy Smith couldn't in Jim Tressel's best offense).  It's just that right now, labeling him a bust is not only premature, but incredibly naïve.

I've said a lot about revising down our expectations for this year's team, and it's now rather clear we'll have to, but I think it's high time we also start examining what exactly it is we want out of Pryor. I think we have to start reconsidering how we define the term "bust"; I don't think Pryor will live up to the "ONCE-IN-A-GENERATION!!!1one" hype, but who has in recent memory? Should we really judge him by the ridiculous amounts of hype he was getting out of high school, knowing full well the pitfalls of that very hype? That can't be how we define him as a success or failure if we're to be realistic. Is he a bust if he fails to win a MNC? That too is a ridiculous standard, especially given this team's numerous other noted faults, some of which I'm not sure even Vince Young at his team-carryin'est could overcome.

Personally, I'd like a BCS bowl win or two out of this kid by the time he's gone. If he does that, and doesn't shoot anyone (murder you, murder me, whateva) in the process, I'll be fine and dandy. If he goes all PHILLIP RIVERS VINCE YOUNG next season, we'll look back on these trying times and laugh. Well, no, I wouldn't be able to just laugh. I'll probably be shooting people myself after this episode. If he never turns into a championship-winning Heisman runner up, it's not the end of the world, nor is it the end of his career. He can still end up more valuable to this team than any such labeling will give him credit for.  It's been stupid to expect him, or anyone, for that matter, to be VY redux since day one, but that's another story, and I've already digressed too much as is.

At this juncture, no matter how you attempt to measure his career, there just isn't enough to go on to make any sort of sane judgment without coming off as a reactionary jackass, and that's whether you want to paint him as a savior or a bust. Pryor's progression (or lack thereof) is something worth worrying about, as is his lack of solid, consistent rushing production. If he doesn't start getting these things sorted out, and fast, I expect Tressel and the staff to seriously re-evaluate his place on this offense. At this stage, tossing around the "bust" label and calling for his benching when the alternative is not clearly better is little more than typical internet panic that probably shouldn't be given the time of day.

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I think Tressel’s confidence in him will go a long way. While I disagree with not benching him for a series or two last Saturday, this could work out. While Buckeye Nation frowns and mopes around the rest of the week, and season for that matter, we should look at the big picture.

Whatever Tress is doing with Pryor’s development will click and he’ll take off. OK, so this season is a disappointment but what were we aiming for to begin with? Big Ten, obviously, but its still within reach – it just looks bad on paper. I don’t know how many people were thinking National Championship, but I wasn’t one of them.

I’m not one to be a peacemaker and hope for next year. I’m more of a diehard not accepting of failure and I want positive results now now now, but I’m going to say, just wait it out Nation, we’ll bounce back.

Columbus til I die, Columbus til I die. I know I am, I swear I am, Columbus til I die!

by BLAZER_FAN_199 on Oct 21, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

JT’s approach to coaching is different than, say, Meyer or Stoops, in that those other guys, like most, recruit players with a promise to catapult them into the national sportlight. JT only promises to prepare players to advance to the next level. I have never discussed this with JT, but I can see by the way he approaches the games that he never wants to win the wrong way. If he goes for it on 4th and one, you won’t see him calling a gadget. His message to his players is that if they want to succeed, it will be by improving their game.
TP is a highly recruited high school star with vast athletic talent. It must be very obvious to JT that this young man can be molded into a qb who can advance to the next level. And it’s doubly important that JT prove to all future recruits that he doesn’t quit on his pupils.

by elsandito on Oct 21, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sam wins teh interwebs +A Milli, sir.

by WorstFan on Oct 21, 2009 1:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well said. I don’t think JT was ever “blowing smoke” at TP. He is a teacher and strives to make the right decisions. Sometimes there are mistakes, but this is football. Mistakes happen. Adversity happens. That’s why touchdowns are worth 6 instead of just 1. If the other team scores, you are automatically in the whole by 6/7/8 points and you have to bounce back or you could end up even farther down. TP is only a sophomore and, I have to admit, I also had my moment of freak out where I could just see our season, reputation, and recruits quickly escaping us. However, not all is lost. We still can gain a share of the Big Ten title and make it to a good bowl. We still have 2 more years with this kid and he’s not going anywhere. I definitely think Tressel’s confidence in TP, even LeBron’s and Shaq’s encouraging words, will really help him out and (fingers crossed) maybe this loss opened his eyes a bit. Here’s to 6-0 the rest of the season! GO BUCS!!!

by jharbdo on Oct 22, 2009 9:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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