Individual Game Results of Ohio State (vs Purdue), 2001-2008

Last week, I cited the annoying "throw out the records" cliché in reference to Ohio State and Wisconsin. In the era of routine Big Ten dominance under Jim Tressel, only a handful of teams have consistently kept pace with the Buckeyes on the scoreboard (even when that pace is a leisurely Sunday stroll, which it typically is). Clearly, Michigan, outside of last year's laugher, hasn't done a bad job of keeping the score close. Neither has Wisconsin, and, outside of twin blowouts in 2006 and 2007, neither has Penn State. Some of these teams actually had the audacity to beat us; for our own sanity's sake, we're fortunate that Purdue has done so just once in the Jim Tressel era. Tress is 5-1 overall against the Boilers, but his teams have only won by average score of 19 to 10 (take out the 35-point 2001 outing, and it's 16 to 11). To say former Purdue defensive coordinator (and current Southern Illinois coach) Brock Spack had figured out the Jim Tressel attack is an understatement, and, looking at the statistics, more competent offensive efforts from Purdue may have netted a few more wins than Buckeye fans would be comfortable with, which would have placed them on the level of Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin in terms of teams who routinely challenge Ohio State. This is despite a general swoon in West Lafayette toward the end of the Joe Tiller era. In Tiller's final year, a lackluster Purdue defense throttled a Buckeye attack and was one of just two conference defenses to hold them without a touchdown. 

Even as Purdue enters this game last in the conference in turnover margin (to the Buckeyes' third), it's tough to predict anything but another hard slog, barring massive improvement from the Ohio State offense. Even so, competent Jim Tressel offenses have found it hard to score on Purdue. It's doubtful Ohio State will be able to recreate the magic of the Wisconsin game, even with repeated "butterfinger Boiler" moments. This is one of those "sneaky tough" games; while our supposed strengths sync up with Purdue's weaknesses - the Boilermakers are second-to-last in the conference in rush D, and have surrendered 15 (!) touchdowns on the ground in '09 - but they were dead last in the conference in 2008, and the Ohio State attacked netted 125 yards on 42 carries. Thankfully, Spack is gone, but the Boilers retain a relatively solid passing defense, and it's unclear whether that's because the rush defense is poor (and thus everyone exploits it, to the detriment of their own passing attack). However, Oregon, Minnesota and Notre Dame all passed for more than 280 yards on the Boilers. Nevertheless, If Pryor doesn't have a huge day through the air, it might be understandable. As usual, the test of the Purdue defense's mettle will be the conference's premier team athletically, but to really know whether or not they're good, we'll have to pay close attention to whether it was the Ohio State offense shooting itself in the foot again (as it was against Wisconsin), or if Ohio State is clearly adversely affected by Purdue's schemes (rather than Terrelle Pryor missing wide open guys again, as he did repeatedly against Wisconsin and Illinois).

I'll be doing a bit more of in-depth preview tomorrow, but I'm prefacing it by saying that a close game should be surprising to no one. Come Sunday, you should not be left wondering what Purdue did to YOUR WIFE, YOUR FAMILY, your offense, and (in a worst-case scenario) your conference-championship dreams. They always do this.  Over the years, they're a few big plays offensively from being the other thorn in Jim Tressel's side. Let's hope they don't make those plays Saturday, especially if the tOSU offense continues to underperform.